[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N41W
to 14N39W. This feature has no significant convection currently
associated with it. Satellite imagery shows the wave is surrounded
by SAL air.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N60W
to 15N58W. This feature also has no significant convection
currently associated with it. TPW satellite imagery and the
Barbados 12Z sounding show convection in the vicinity of the wave
is inhibited by a mid-level layer of dry air.

In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave has an axis extending from
07N81W to 15N81W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present in the vicinity of the wave between 07N and 12N
between 79W and 85W, mainly along the coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in
deep layer moisture.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea Bissau near
11N15W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
07N to 10N between 12W and 16W and within 60 nm either side of a
line from 07N22W to 05N30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches across the Gulf from 1012 mb low pres
centered near Apalachicola Florida Panhandle to the Mouth of the
Rio Grande. An upper level trough reaches SW from central Texas to
the Mexican State of Durango. Upper-level divergence on the E side
of this trough has induced a surface trough extending from 26N97W
to 1012 mb low pres centered near 27N97W to 28N96W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection associated with these
features is occurring over the NW Gulf W of a line from 30N90W to
24N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found
over the NE Gulf along and up to 150 nm SE of the stationary
front N of 26N.

A relatively light wind regime is currently in place over the
basin with light to gentle winds prevailing.

The stationary front will linger over the northern Gulf through
Thu, then dissipate Fri. Winds will increase over the western
Gulf as high pressure shifts W across the SE United States and low
pres develops over the plains states.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Virtually all of the significant convection over this basin is
confined to the vicinity of a tropical wave currently crossing the
SW across Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves Section for more
details. The monsoon trough crosses the southern Caribbean from
SE Costa Rica to 1009 mb low pres near 11N76W to near Lake
Maracaibo. The trough is helping to pool deep moisture around the
tropical wave.

Some isolated showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles.
Trades over the eastern and and southwest Caribbean are moderate
to fresh, with light to gentle trades in the northwest basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean through Sat, with moderate to
locally fresh trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extending from central Florida to western
Cuba is producing upper level divergence over the Bahamas.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 23N
to 27N between 74W and 78W. The trough is expected to weaken and
lift out to the NE during the next couple of days and allow this
convection to diminish.

A nearly stationary boundary extends WSW from 32N40W to 28N53W.
Cloudiness and low topped showers are seen within 45 nm of the
front. The front is expected to begin moving SE later today and
continue doing so for the next couple of days as high pres builds
to the N of the boundary. Otherwise, surface ridging curving SW
from near the Azores to Bermuda is maintaining light to moderate
trades over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and S of 25N
between 25W and 60W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Fri, then stall
and weaken north of the Bahamas Fri and Sat. Fresh southerly winds
are expected to develop N of 28N and W of 76W ahead of the front
tonight and Thu, then diminish as the front weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAM
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