[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W S of 13N. Light
showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 15N. Light
showers are noted near the coast of Guyana. No significant
convection is seen north of 07N.

In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave is along 76W S of 17N. Some
scattered shower activity is seen in the vicinity of the wave, and
a more signficant strong convection near the coast of Colombia in
combination with a 1008 mb low pressure and Pacific monsoon
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
moving along the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 19W-23W.
There are some thunderstorms near the Brazilian coast interacting
with the ITCZ near 00N between 46W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is seen stretching across the Gulf, from the
Florida Panhandle to northeast Mexico, near 30N85W to 25N97W. An
upper level trough is digging across Texas, which is providing
some upper level divergence along western Gulf coast. This is
fueling scattered thunderstorms along the TX and northeast Mexico
coast. Another upper level trough is situated across the central
and eastern Gulf, which is enhancing scattered thunderstorm along
the eastern Gulf waters and the FL Peninsula. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen along the stationary front. A surface
trough extends from 21N85W into the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
showers extend 180 nm west of the trough into the Bay of Campeche.

In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate and out of the
southwest. In the central Gulf, winds are generally light to
gentle. In the northwestern Gulf, post-frontal winds are out of
the northeast and are generally gentle.

A stationary front from near the Florida Big Bend to northern
Mexico will linger through Thu before dissipating. High pres will
build across the area by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper level trough digging across the eastern Gulf extends
into the NW Caribbean, with an upper level ridge dominating the
rest of the Caribbean. This is creating an environment favorable
for convection to fire off in the northern and western Caribbean,
mainly west of 73W including Cuba, Jamaica, and the coast of
Honduras and Nicaragua and southwest Caribbean. However, the
monsoon trough is extending in the southern Caribbean from Panama
to Colombia and is producing scattered moderate strong convection
moving into the basin, mostly south of 10N and between 75W78W.
Some isolated showers are moving across Puerto Rico to the Lesser
Antilles. Trades over the eastern and and southwest Caribbean are
moderate to fresh, with light to gentle trades in the northwest
basin.

Weak high pressure north of the area will support Fresh to strong
trade winds over the S central Caribbean through Sat night, with
moderate to locally fresh trades across the rest of the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the scattered shower activity occurring over the western
Atlantic is associated to upper level divergence from the digging
trough over the eastern Gulf. This scattered showers extend from
the Caribbean across Cuba, Bahamas and western Atlantic waters
west of 73W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N to
30N and west of 70W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front
continues to press southward and enters the waters near 31N44W
and stretches to near 28N56W. The front then stalls from 28N56W
to the north to 30N57W in which the boundary continues northward
toward the New England coast. Light showers are seen along the
front but otherwise no significant convection is occurring with
this feature. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin
from a 1030 mb high near 43N22W with tranquil conditions.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Fri, then stall
and weaken just N of the Bahamas Fri night and Sat. Fresh winds
could become locally strong each night along the N coast of
Hispaniola Thu night through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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