[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale force winds are forecast along the coast of Morocco. Meteo-
France is forecasting Gale force winds for the zone of AGADIR.
Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas forecast listed on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS- METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W from 01N-14N, moving W at
10 kt in the last 24 hours. The wave axis is seen on satellite
imagery and in the model diagnostic data. Scattered showers
extends 180 nm on either side of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W from 01N-13N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave
axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W from 03N-15N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave
axis extending from 09-16N between 60W-64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 02N-14N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mainly
inland over Colombia and coastal areas neat Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
15N16W to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N35W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave at 04N40W to the coast of Brazil
03N50W. Beside the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between
25W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure in the
Florida Panhandle near 30N86W west to the NE Gulf near 29N94W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Debri clouds from
a cluster of strong thunderstorms over west central Texas extends
into the northwest Gulf waters. However, most of the strong
convection remains inland across Texas. Moderate convection is in
the warm section over the NE Gulf and Florida N of 24N between
80W-83W. A surface trough is seen from 17N-25N between 88W-90w.

A dissipating stationary front extends from near Panama City,
Florida to just east of Houston, Texas. A cold front will move
across the NW and north-central Gulf this morning and across the
Ne Gulf this afternoon and evening by late tonight. The front
will gradually weaken through Wed night and become stationary by
early Fri. It will then lift back N as a warm front Fri and Fri
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are presently over some
sections of the northern and eastern Gulf. The cold front will be
attendant by similar activity.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds over the south central Caribbean, especially
north of Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras, and weakest winds
over the far NW Caribbean. Besides the convection associated with
the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is over the
Greater Antilles. Also, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is along the Pacific monsoon trough which extends from
the west coast of Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong trades are expected over the south-central
Caribbean through Fri night along with building seas, except
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia where near gale force winds
are presently occurring. These winds will continue till daybreak
this morning. Strong east winds over the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish to fresh winds this afternoon, then pulse back up to
strong winds at night from Wed through Fri. Otherwise, a rather
weak high pressure north of the area will allow for moderate to
locally fresh trades across most of the Caribbean during the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are noted over the W Atlantic, to include the
Bahamas, N of 21N and W of 73W. A large 1031 mb high is centered
over the eastern Atlantic near 37N26W. An upper level low is over
the E Atlantic near 26N42W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm
of this center.

A ridge that extends from near 28N65W to the Straits of Florida
will remain in place through Thu night, then begin to lift
northward on Fri reaching to near 30N by late Fri. A cold front
will move offshore the southeastern United States on Fri. Prior to
that, fresh southwest winds will develop over the far northwest
waters Wed night and diminish to mainly moderate winds on Thu.
Elsewhere over the area, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
are expected during the period, except for moderate to fresh east
winds south of 22N and east of 78W. A moist and unstable airmass
will support unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers
and thunderstorms through much of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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