[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 14N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
05N to 12N between Africa and 25W. Scattered strong rainshowers
are in the coastal plains 07N, at the border of Sierra Leone and
Liberia, and 13N in SW Senegal.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 14N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N
between 40W and 46W, also partly mixed with ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 16N southward.
Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of the
tropical wave. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N
southward between 60W and 69W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W from 15N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 76W
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 06N23W and
06N39W, and from 05N43W to 05N50W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers, in general, away from the tropical
waves, are from 02N to 07N between 25W and 33W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to 07N between 47W and
55W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb Florida Panhandle low
pressure center, into the N central/NE part of the Gulf of Mexico.
The front becomes dissipating stationary 28N87W, westward,
toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 88W eastward. The same precipitation
is occurring in Florida, and in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of
Florida, from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W westward.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward, with a trough.

The current frontal boundary will linger through Thursday night,
and it will move northward as a warm front on Friday and Friday
night. An upper level trough will support scattered rainshowers
and isolated thunderstorms in the NE Gulf for the next couple of
days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 22N66W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, across the Dominican Republic and
Puerto Rico, toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the southern
coastal waters of Cuba, and to the south of the line that runs
from 18N60W to 15N70W to NE Nicaragua.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Friday night. East winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will pulse to strong at night, from Wednesday through
Friday. Rather weak high pressure N of the area will support
moderate to locally fresh trade winds, elsewhere, across most of
the Caribbean Sea during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 30N36W cyclonic circulation
center, to 24N44W, to 24N59W, to a second cyclonic circulation
center that is near 22N66W. The trough continues beyond Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba and
Hispaniola, and 20N, northward from 55W westward.

A surface ridge extends from near a 1031 mb high pressure center
that is near 37N26W, through 32N33W, to 28N47W, 28N59W, 27N73W,
beyond the NW Bahamas.

The current surface ridge will move northward on Friday to near
30N. A cold front will move off the SE United States on Friday.
Fresh SW winds will develop in the far NW waters on Wednesday
night, and then diminish to moderate winds on Thursday. Gentle to
moderate S winds generally will prevail elsewhere, EXCEPT for
moderate to fresh east winds S of 22N and E of 78W. A moist and
unstable airmass will support scattered rainshowers with thunder
for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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