[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale force winds are forecast along the coast of Morocco. Meteo-
France is forecasting Gale force winds for the zone of AGADIR.
Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas forecast listed on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS- METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 16W from 01N-14N, moving W at
10 kt. The wave axis is noted in the satellite imagery and in the
model diagnostic data. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-
09N between 16W-18W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 01N-13N, moving W at
10 kt. Isolated moderate convection extends 100 nm on either side
of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W from 03N-15N, moving W at
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis
extending from 04N-15N between 58W- 64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 02N-14N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mainly
inland over Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
14N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 05N35W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave at 04N38W to the coast of Brazil
01N50W. Beside the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between
24W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure in the
Florida Panhandle near 30N87W west to the NE Gulf near 29N94W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Debri clouds from
a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over west central
Texas extends into the northwest Gulf waters. However, most of the
strong convection remains inland across Texas. Moderate
convection is in the warm section over the NE Gulf and Florida N
of 25N between 82W- 84W.

A weak stationary front extending from near Mobile, Alabama to
near Houston Texas will be reinforcing by a cold front moving
across the NW Gulf Mon and Mon night. The merged front will reach
from the Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by Mon
night, then become stationary and weaken over the northern Gulf
Tue through Wed night. Fresh north to northeast winds will follow
the front before diminishing to mainly gentle winds Tue. A weak
cold front will move across the north-central Gulf on Wed and
across the NE Gulf Wed night into Thu and become stationary by
late Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds over the south central Caribbean, especially
north of Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras, and weakest winds
over the far NW Caribbean. Besides the convection associated with
the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is over the
Greater Antilles. Also, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is along the Pacific monsoon trough which extends from
the west coast of Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong trades are expected over the S central Caribbean
through Fri night along with building seas, except within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia where near gale force winds will occur late
tonight and early Mon morning. Strong winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and then Thu night. Otherwise, a weak
ridge N of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade
winds across most of the Caribbean during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are noted over the W Atlantic, to include the N
Bahamas, N of 22N and W of 76W. A large 1033 mb high is centered
over the eastern Atlantic near 36N27W. an upper level low is over
the E Atlantic near 26N42W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm
of this center.

A ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic and the Bahamas over the
next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly
winds N of 22N, and an E to SE wind flow S of 22N, with seas
generally under 6 ft. A moist airmass will remain overhead and
support unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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