[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is added to the analysis at 0600
UTC along 26W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03N-07N between 25W-33W. The wave is analyzed close to
where a 700 mb trough is diagnosed by the computer models.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 49W from 13N
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is mainly south of 04N between 42W-51W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving through the
Lesser Antilles with axis along 63W from 15N southward, moving
west at 15 kt. Total precipitable water images indicate a moist
environment around the wave. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are S of 14N between 56W-66WW.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of West Africa near
10N14W and continues to 07N21W. The ITCZ begins near 07N21W to
07N24W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N28W to
07N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers and tstorms are noted near and south of
the monsoon trough from 03N-10N between the west coast of Africa
and 18W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N and 240 nm S of the
ITCZ between 33W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1006 mb low over SW Louisiana near
30N93W to 29N94.5W to near Port O'Connor Texas near 28N96W and
inland to the Texas/Mexico border near 29N100.5W. At 0900 UTC, the
front is analyzed as a stationary front. Scattered showers and
tstorms are from 27.5N-29N between 90W-95W. Over the NE Gulf of
Mexico, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate
convection north of 27.5N east of 88W. Latest ASCAT and surface
observations show fresh SW winds over the NE to north-central
Gulf. The southern two-thirds of the Gulf is experiencing quieter
weather than the northern Gulf, with only an isolated shower or
tstorm near the lower Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the
southeastern Gulf and broad low pressure over the southern U.S.
will maintain moderate to locally fresh southwest to west winds
across the NE and north-central Gulf waters through early Sunday
evening. A weak front over the NW Gulf of Mexico early this
morning will reach the north-central Gulf tonight, then stall and
weaken to a trough by Sunday afternoon. A slightly stronger cold
front will move across the NW Gulf Monday, then weaken across the
northern Gulf Tuesday through Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-upper level ridging prevails across the western Caribbean,
leading to relatively quiet weather north of 14N west of 80W. The
quiet weather extends into the central Caribbean from 14N-17N
between 70W-80W. In the far SW Caribbean, the East Pacific
monsoon trough is providing scattered showers and isolated tstorms
south of 12.5N between 71W-84W. An upper-level trough axis
extends from an upper-low near 26N64W to the Virgin Islands to
the NW coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are seen from eastern Cuba eastward through the northern coast of
Hispaniola. Farther southeast, broken multi-layered clouds along
with scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover the southeastern
Caribbean Sea, SE of a line from 20N61W to 13.5N70W, including
the Windward and Leeward Islands, ABC Islands and Trinidad. Latest
ASCAT shows moderate trades across much of the basin, with fresh
E winds in the south-central Caribbean.

A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally
fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean during the next
several days. Fresh to strong trades will begin over the south-
central Caribbean tonight through Wed night along with building
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley
continues to spread scattered showers and isolated tstorms over
northern Florida and the western Atlantic to the east of Florida,
mainly west of 75W and north of 27N. More isolated activity is
seen near the NW Bahamas and South Florida. An upper level low
near 26N64W extends an upper level trough axis across the Virgin
Islands into the east-central Caribbean. This trough is
supporting scattered thunderstorms from 20N-26N between 62W-72W.
Some of these storms contain frequent lightning. A surface trough
extends from 32N65W to 30N66W. Isolated showers are seen between
90-180 nm E of the trough. Ridging dominates the remainder of the
basin east of 60W, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 37N37W.

High pressure ridging will remain over the southern part of the
area through the period, while low pressure remains over the
southeastern U.S. Mainly moderate southerly winds will be across
the area through the next few days. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area well into next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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