[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in Africa, along 08W/09W from 12N southward.
The wave shows up well in the satellite imagery and in the model
diagnostic data. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 10W and 13W. Much of the
cloudiness that is associated with this wave still is in Africa.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 15N
southward. The wave shows up in long-loop satellite imagery.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to
08N between 17W and 23W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 15N southward.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area from 03N to 07N between 25W and 35W.
Some of the precipitation that is in the same area is related to
the ITCZ also.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 14N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to
10N between 45W and 50W. Other nearby precipitation is related
to the ITCZ also.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 16N
southward. Upper level SW wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from
70W eastward. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W from 17N in
Belize southward. No significant deep convective precipitation
is related directly to the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N15W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 06N30W,
to 06N32W to 05N44W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers, in general, away from the tropical waves,
are from 10N southward from 51W eastward, and from 10N southward
between 52W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. It
passes through south central Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf
coast. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers are in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from 28N between Louisiana and Florida. Isolated moderate
rainshowers have spread across Florida, and into the Atlantic
Ocean, from 24N northward from 70W westward.

A broad low pressure area in the southern U.S. will maintain
moderate southwest to west winds across the NE and north-central
Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. A weak cold front in the NW Gulf
of Mexico will stall and weaken in the north central Gulf
overnight. A stronger cold front will move across the NW Gulf of
Mexico on Monday, then weaken in the northern Gulf on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough reaches Puerto Rico, from a 25N65W
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center. The trough
eventually reaches La Peninsula de la Guajira of NE Colombia and
parts of NW Venezuela. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
are within a 30 nm radius of 16N64W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere to the south of the line that runs from 20N61W to
17N65W to 13N77W to 14N82W.

A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally
fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea during the
next several days. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in
the south central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night, with
building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 30N40W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is near 25N65W. The trough continues southwestward to Puerto
Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from
20N northward between 30W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 27N between 62W and
73W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N
northward between 50W and 73W.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 37N39W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
northward from 70W eastward.

A ridge will remain in the southern part of the area through
Wednesday. Low pressure is forecast to remain in the
southeastern U.S. for this weekend. Moderate southerly winds are
expected across the area during the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net