[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 48W from 13N
southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are mainly south of 04N between 41W-50W.

A tropical wave is moving through the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 61/62W from 15N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Total
precipitable water images indicate a moist environment around the
wave. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are S of 14N between
54W and 64W.

A tropical wave extends from central Belize southward to El
Salvador and into the East Pacific along 88/89W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are over land near the Pacific coast of Central
America near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of West Africa near
10N14W and continues to 07N22W. The ITCZ begins near 07N22W and
continues to 07N47W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. In the
far E Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N-10N
between the coast of Africa and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 08/0300 UTC a cold front extends from a 1005 mb low over SE
Louisiana near 31N92W to near Beaumont Texas to near Galveston
Texas to near Victoria Texas, and westward to near Del Rio Texas.
A line of thunderstorms is ahead of the front extending from near
Gulfport Mississippi to Houma Louisiana and into the NW Gulf to
29N92W to 28.5N94W as of 0530 UTC. Some of the storms well
offshore SW Louisiana may be producing gusty winds. Over the NE
Gulf of Mexico, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered
moderate convection north of 28N east of 87W. Latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh SW winds over the NE to north-central Gulf. The
southern two- thirds of the Gulf is experiencing quieter weather
than the northern Gulf, with only an isolated shower or two off
the NW coast of Cuba and the NE coast of Mexico.

A persistent low pressure area over the SE U.S. will maintain
moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds across the NE Gulf through
the weekend. The weak cold front in the far NW Gulf will stall
across the north-central Gulf by tonight. A stronger cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Monday, then weaken in the northern
Gulf on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-upper level ridging prevails across the western Caribbean.
However, abundant moisture prevails in the low-levels. Isolated
showers and tstorms are seen near Cuba and south of 13N in the SW
Caribbean, with fair weather from west of Jamaica to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered showers and tstorms are over N Colombia and NW
Venezuela. Upper-level divergence and diffluence is supporting
scattered showers and isolated tstorms across portions of the
south-central and southeastern Caribbean. A mid-upper level low
to the north of Puerto Rico near 26N65W extends a mid-upper trough
across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and into the north-
central Caribbean. Most of the convection associated with this
feature is north of the basin, but some isolated showers are
affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Latest ASCAT
shows moderate trades across much of the basin, with fresh E winds
in the south-central Caribbean.

A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally
fresh trade winds for most of the Caribbean the next few days.
Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean tonight through Wed night, with seas building to 9 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Showers and tstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure
over the lower Mississippi Valley continue to spread scattered
showers and isolated tstorms over the western Atlantic east of
Florida, mainly west of 73W, including the NW Bahamas. This
activity is not particularly strong or heavy. A mid-upper level
low near 26N65W extends a mid-upper level trough axis across
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and into the north-central
Caribbean. This trough is supporting scattered thunderstorms from
20N-25N between 63W-72W. Some of these storms contain frequent
lightning. A 1014 mb surface low is near 31N64W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 29N67W. Isolated showers are near the low.
Ridging dominates the remainder of the basin east of 60W, anchored
by a 1032 mb high near 37N38W.

A ridge will build across the region this morning through Sunday
in the wake of the weak surface low pressure currently located
near 31N64W. Mainly moderate southerly winds along the western
periphery of the ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic, with seas
generally under 5 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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