[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis extending
from 08N35W to 01N35W moving west around 15-20 kt. The wave is
embedded in a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and in a strong shear
environment, which is prohibiting the development of strong
convection. There is some scattered showers seen from 07N-04N
between 33W-36W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis
extending from 12N51W to 02N52W moving west around 10 kt. Saharan
Air Layer dry air and strong wind shear are present in the wave
environment limiting strong convection. There is some scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms seen from 09N-06N between
49W- 53W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 20N78W
to 10N79W moving west around 5 kt. The low level precipitable
water imagery show dry air intrusion into the SE Caribbean, which
along with strong wind shear is limiting convection.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W and continues to 07N24W. The ITCZ begins near 07N25W and
continues to 04N35W, then continues west of a tropical wave near
03N36W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the
monsoon trough from 09N-06N between 22W-15W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen along the monsoon trough from 07N-05N
between 29W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer moisture seen west of 92W on the TPW, a 1005 mb surface
low along the Texas/Louisiana border near 30N94W, and upper level
divergence is fueling moderate to strong convection along the
Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. This convective
activity is moving across the northwest Gulf, from west of 92W and
north of 28N to the Gulf coastlines. These storms are producing
frequent lightning and gusty winds up to 30 kt reported by buoys
45 nm off the central Louisiana coast. There are also
thunderstorms moving off Alabama and western Florida Panhandle and
making its way into the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also seen off the southwest Florida coast near
Naples. There is a trough seen in the western Bay of Campeche from
23N90W to 19N92W. Another surface trough extends from the Florida
Panhandle to the eastern Gulf along 84W from 30N-28N.

Aside from the convective activity U.S. Gulf coastline, the basin
remains quiet. Gentle southerly winds are seen in in the eastern
portion of the basin. In the northwestern Gulf, moderate to fresh
southerly winds are seen. The Bay of Campeche remains quiet with
light to gentle east- southeasterly winds.

As the low pressure system along the Texas/Louisiana border moves
farther inland today, anomalously high moisture from the Gulf
will continue to produce heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across
the central and eastern Gulf coast region. It will then weaken and
linger as a trough across Mississippi and Alabama the next few
days, with winds becoming west- southwesterly in the northern half
of the basin through Monday.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging brings strong subsidence over the western half
of the Caribbean which is keeping conditions fair. The eastern
half of the Caribbean is under the influence of a digging middle
to upper level trough. This is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. The East
Pacific monsoon trough is seen along Panama with numerous strong
convection associated with it. This is moving across the southern
Caribbean from 11N-09N between 76W-83W. The trades in the
southern Caribbean are moderate, with the rest of the Caribbean
seeing light to gentle winds.

A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate
to locally fresh trade winds across the region through Sunday
night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough continues to dig across the
western Atlantic while extending south to the eastern Caribbean.
This is supporting a surface trough from 27N63W to 19N68W. Upper
level divergence along with influence from the surface trough is
fueling scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 31N-
20N between 60W- 68W. Otherwise, surface ridging continues across
the rest of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high near
38N40W with fair conditions prevailing.

The inverted trough N of Puerto Rico will remain in the area
during the next few days. Tranquil marine conditions are expected
across most of the forecast area through Mon.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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