[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 33W
from 09N-00N moving west around 15-20 kt. The wave is embedded in
a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and it is in a strong shear
environment, which is hindering the development of strong
convection. Middle level diffluent flow and ITCZ moisture support
isolated showers from 06N-00N between 30W-36W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 10N49W to 00N50W moving west around 10 kt. Saharan Air Layer
dry air and strong wind shear are present in the wave
environment, limiting the convection to isolated showers from 08N-
06N between 48-52W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 20N78W
to 10N79W moving west around 10 kt. The low level precipitable
water imagery show dry air intrusion into the SE Caribbean, which
along with strong wind shear is limiting convection.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
and continues to 05N28W. The ITCZ begins near 03N35W and
continues to 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along
the monsoon trough from 07N-06N between 28W-13W. There is also
some isolated convection occurring near the ITCZ from 04N-00N
between 43W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer moisture seen west of 92W on the TPW along with a low
along the southeast Texas coastline, and upper level divergence,
is giving way to moderate to strong convection mostly along the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Some of this activity is moving into the
Gulf. There is a small line of convection building just off the
coast of Galveston from 30N- 29N between 93W-96W. There is also
convective activity across Deep South Texas that is making its way
toward the Gulf coast. With the surface high pressure moving
inland and the upper level ridge shifting southward, this is
allowing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to enter
into the north-central and eastern portions of the Gulf.

Aside from the convective activity near the western and central
Gulf coastline, the basin remains quiet. Winds in the eastern
portion of the basin are light and variable. In the northwestern
Gulf, return flow is seen and winds are moderate to fresh out of
the south. The Bay of Campeche remains quiet with light to gentle
east-southeasterly winds.

Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will continue to produce
heavy rainfall across the central and northern Gulf through the
weekend as this system moves NE. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
elsewhere through Thursday. A ridge will build eastward across the
Gulf of Mexico from Thursday through Saturday. A 1008 mb low will
be over the far NE Gulf on Sunday through Monday.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging brings strong subsidence over the western half
of the Caribbean, thus keeping conditions fair except for some
isolated showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm off the southern
coast of Cuba. The eastern half of the Caribbean is under the
influence of a digging middle to upper level trough. This is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms Puerto Rico and into
the Lesser Antilles. The trades in the southern Caribbean are
moderate, with the rest of the Caribbean seeing light to gentle
winds.

A ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds in the
Gulf of Honduras, and in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Thursday. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea will have moderate to
fresh trade winds through Monday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extending
south to the eastern Caribbean continues to support a surface
trough from 28N62W to 21N67W. Upper level divergence along with
influence from the surface trough is fueling scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 29N-21N between 60W-66W.
Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin
being anchored by a 1030 mb high near 37N37W and is giving way to
fair conditions across the rest of the basin.

The inverted trough to the N of Puerto Rico will remain in the
area during the next few days. Tranquil marine conditions are
expected elsewhere in the forecast area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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