[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 01N30W to 10N28W, moving west around 15 kt. The wave is
embedded in a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and it is in a strong
shear environment, which is hindering the development of strong
convection. Middle level diffluent flow and ITCZ moisture support
isolated showers from 02S to 08N between 26W and 38W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 10N48W to 02N49W, moving west around 5 kt. Saharan Air Layer
dry air and strong wind shear are present in the wave
environment, limiting the convection to isolated showers from 0N
to 09N between 40W and 54W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending along
65W south of 14N, moving west around 5 kt. The low level
precipitable water imagery show dry air intrusion into the SE
Caribbean, which along with strong wind shear limit the convection
to isolated showers S of 13N between 60W and 70W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 18N77W to 09N77W, moving west at 5 kt. This wave is in a
strong wind shear environment and no convection is associated with
it at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of West Africa near
10N14W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W and
continues to 06N26W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near
04N31W to 05N40W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 10N east of 21W. See tropical waves section for further
information about convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer moisture along with upper-level divergence continue
to support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms over
the NW gulf. The strongest convection is currently within 210 nm
south of Louisiana. A center of low pressure located along the
coast of Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi is also
associated with this convection. Latest scatterometer data showed
strong to near gale force winds around the low pressure center.
However, convection has slightly decreased and winds as well.
Latest surface observations show winds up to 25 kt N of 26N W of
91W. Otherwise, light to moderate southeast flow dominate the
remainder basin. Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will
continue to produce heavy rainfall across the central and northern
Gulf through the weekend as this system moves NE. Gentle to
moderate ESE winds are expected elsewhere through Thursday. A
ridge will build eastward across the Gulf of Mexico from Thursday
through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging brings strong subsidence over the western half
of the Caribbean, thus keeping conditions fair except for some
isolated showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm off the southern
coast of Cuba. The eastern half of the Caribbean is under the
influence of a middle to upper level trough, which continue to
support scattered showers and tstms across Hispaniola. Isolated
showers are also possible for portions of the NE Caribbean. Otherwise,
a ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds in the
Gulf of Honduras, and in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Thursday. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea will have moderate to
fresh trade winds through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extending
south to a base over the eastern Caribbean continue to support a
surface trough east of the Bahamas. The surface trough extends
from 29N65W to 22N68W and fuels scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms N of 22N between 60W and 68W. Otherwise, surface
ridging continues across the rest of the basin being anchored by a
1030 mb high W of the Azores Islands. Tranquil marine conditions
are expected elsewhere in the forecast area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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