[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, seen along 27W from
09N south and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
showers are seen with this feature from 01N-07N between 26W-30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, seen along 47W/48W
from 02N-10N moving west around 05 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are
near this wave from 02N-08N between 46W to the coast of Brazil.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, extending south
along 64W from 05N-14N moving west around 05 kt. Most of the
moderate convection associated with this wave is mainly over land
across Venezuela.

A tropical wave is located in the western Caribbean, extending
south along 77W between 11N-19N. Once again, this wave is in a
strong wind shear environment and no convection is associated
along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W to 05N26W and continues west
of a tropical wave near 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 04N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 01N-07N
between 30W-41W. Isolated convection is also seen near the ITCZ
and the Brazilian coast from 02N-01S and west of 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer moisture along with upper-level divergence is fueling
scattered to numerous strong convection across the western half of
the Gulf, mainly west of 92W. The strongest convection is currently
over the southeast and middle Texas coast. However, the ongoing
convective activity extends in the northwestern Gulf with lightning
associated with it and gusts up to 25-35 kts according to buoys
in the area. These thunderstorms are mostly from 22N-28N between
93W-96W. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate SE flow continues across
the eastern and central Gulf. A 1017 mb high pressure is located
near 28N84W keeping fair weather across the eastern Gulf. In the
western Gulf, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are seen.

Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will produce heavy
rainfall across the western and central Gulf coasts in addition to
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the
next few days. See Weather Prediction Center and local NWS
forecast offices for more information on this. Meanwhile, fresh
to strong SE winds, associated with a trough in Mexico, will
persist in the NW Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Gentle to
moderate ESE winds are expected elsewhere through Thursday. A
ridge will build eastward across the Gulf of Mexico from Thursday
through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging is bringing strong subsidence over the western
Caribbean and keeping conditions fair, with isolated thunderstorms
passing through the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough continues
to be draped across Panama, fueling scattered moderate to strong
convection some of which is entering adjacent waters mostly south
of 10N along the coast of Colombia to the coast of Costa Rica
between 83W-75W. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the
eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle trades in the western
basin. Moderate to fresh trades are in the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds over
the Gulf of Honduras and the south-central Caribbean through
Thursday. The remainder of the Caribbean will have moderate to
fresh trade winds through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extends
south to the northwest Caribbean. This is ushering in moisture
with upper level divergence and fueling scattered moderate
convection north of Puerto Rico.

A surface trough lingers north of Puerto Rico from 28N67W to
22N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 31N-22N
between 63W-68W. Another area of scattered showers are seen in
the central Atlantic from 18N-22N between 55W-69W. Otherwise,
surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin from the
1031 mb Azores high near 38N36W and keeping conditions fair.

A weak inverted trough to the N of Puerto Rico will remain in the
area during the next few days. Tranquil marine conditions are
expected elsewhere in the forecast area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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