[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis extending
from 08N35W to 00N36W moving west around 15-20 kt. The wave is
embedded in a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and in a strong shear
environment, which is prohibiting the development of strong
convection. There is some scattered showers seen from 04N-07N
between 33W-37W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along an axis extending
from 12N51W to 02N52W moving west around 10 kt. Saharan Air Layer
and strong wind shear are present in the wave environment limiting
strong convection. There is some scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms seen from 06N-10N between 49W-54W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 19N79W
to 09N78W moving west around 5 kt. The low level precipitable
water imagery show dry air intrusion into the SE Caribbean, which
along with strong wind shear is limiting convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W and continues to 06N24W. The ITCZ begins at that point
and continues to 04N33W, then continues west of a tropical wave
near 03N38W to 03N49W. Aside to the convection activity near the
tropical waves, scattered showers are seen along the monsoon
trough and ITCZ from 06N-09N between 16W-22W, and from 03N-07N
between 25W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer moisture seen west of 89W on the TPW, a 1014mb surface
low along the Texas/Louisiana border near 31N92W, and upper level
divergence is fueling moderate to strong convection along the
Central Gulf Coast extending south to 28N92W. A surface trough
extends across the northwest Gulf from 29N92W to 27N96W. The
convective activity is moving across the northwest Gulf producing
flash flooding, frequent lightning and gusty winds up to 30 kt
reported by buoys 50 nm off the central Louisiana coast. There are
also thunderstorms moving off Alabama and western Florida
Panhandle and making its way into the northeastern Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also seen off the southwest Florida
coast near Naples. There is a trough seen in the western Bay of
Campeche from 23N91W to 19N93W.

Aside from the convective activity U.S. Gulf coastline, the basin
remains quiet. Gentle southerly winds are seen in in the eastern
portion of the basin. In the northwestern Gulf, moderate to fresh
southerly winds are seen. The Bay of Campeche remains quiet with
light to gentle east-southeasterly winds.

A low pressure center in Louisiana will move NE during the next
few days. A trough will remain, from Mississippi to Louisiana to
the Texas Gulf coast. The winds will be from the SW, in the
northern half of the Gulf of Mexico, until at least Saturday.
A cold front will reach the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday morning. Expect fresh to strong winds in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging brings strong subsidence over the western half
of the Caribbean which is keeping conditions fair. The eastern
half of the Caribbean is under the influence of a digging middle
to upper level trough. This is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms In southern Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and
the Lesser Antilles. The East Pacific monsoon trough is seen
extending from a 1009 mb low pressure in Colombia and south of
Panama with scattered moderate isolated strong convection. The
convection extends into the Caribbean from 08N-12N between 74W-
77W. The trades in the southern Caribbean are moderate, with the
rest of the Caribbean seeing light to gentle winds. A trough is
seen in the Gulf of Honduras with no significant convection noted
along the trough.

Expect fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia starting
on Saturday night, until the end of the period. A weak ridge
north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh trade
winds across the region through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough continues to dig across the western
Atlantic while extending south to the eastern Caribbean. This is
supporting a surface trough from 27N64W to north of Hispaniola
near 20N69W. Upper level divergence along with influence from the
surface trough is fueling scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 20N-31N between 58W-68W. Otherwise, surface
ridging continues across the rest of the basin being anchored by a
1030 mb high near 38N39W with fair conditions prevailing.

A weak inverted trough N of Puerto Rico will remain in the area
during the next few days. Tranquil marine conditions are expected
elsewhere through the period.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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