[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc Ocean, extending from
12N24W to 01N24W, moving W at 5 kt. Upper level diffluence
supports scattered moderate convection from 0N to 11N between 13W
and 31W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc, extending from 13N45W to
02N46W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a strong wind shear and
dry air environment, which is hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, extending S from
12N61W to inland Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. The portion of the
wave over the SE Caribbean is in a strong wind shear environment.
However, shallow moisture is supporting scattered showers and
isolated tstms S of Grenada and in Trinidad and and Tobago.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 07N18W to 05N22W. The
ITCZ begins near 04N26W and continues along 03N40W to 0N49W. For
information about convection see the tropical waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Abundant deep layer moisture W of 91W in the gulf along with
difluent flow aloft continue to fuel scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms over the NW basin where oil platforms report low
visibilities. Similar convection is within 210 nm off the eastern
coast of Mexico associated with a 1009 mb low centered near
23N96W. Besides the weak low, which is likely to become a surface
trough later tonight, SE winds of 5 to 10 kt dominates the western
half of the basin whereas lighter variable winds cover the waters
E of 90W. This disturbance will continue to produce heavy
rainfall over the western basin, portions of eastern Mexico,
southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley during the
next few days. For more information on the heavy rainfall threat
in the United States, please see products issued by your local
forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough over the W Atlc extends S to a base
over the NE Caribbean. The upper trough along with abundant
moisture associated with a surface trough N of Puerto Rico
continue to support scattered showers and tstms across Hispaniola.
Scattered to isolated showers are happening across portions of
Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Model guidance suggests there is
a tropical wave moving across the central basin, however strong
wind shear across the region is hindering convection at the time.
Middle to upper level diffluent flow and shallow moisture support
isolated showers and tstms over western Cuba and adjacent waters
as well as in western Jamaica. Otherwise, a ridge north of the
area will maintain strong trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras,
and the South Central Caribbean tonight through Thu. The remainder
of the Caribbean will have moderate to fresh trade winds through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between a middle level ridge centered near the
Yucatan Channel and a trough along the W Atlc support a surface
trough N of Puerto Rico. Low level precipitable water imagery show
abundant moisture associated with this trough, which is generating
isolated showers and tstms N of 21N W of 58W. The remainder basin
is under the influence of the Azores high and dry air, which
support fair weather. For information about tropical waves, see
section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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