[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 23N97W
remains disorganized. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection covers the western Gulf from 21N-29N west of
92W along with fresh to locally strong winds. This system is
expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico later today or
tonight, and the chance of development into a tropical depression
is low. However, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and
the Lower Mississippi Valley during the next few days. For more
information on the heavy rainfall threat in the United States,
please see products issued by your local forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center. Also, see the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W from 11N
southward. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection accompanies this wave from 02N-09N between 18W-26W.

A second tropical wave is along 43W from 12N southward. Isolated
to scattered showers are mainly south of 04N within 90 nm of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave approaching the SE Caribbean is along 60W from
13N southward. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are on
either side of the wave axis, mainly south of 11N. This activity
is occurring near the southernmost Windward Islands, Trinidad, NE
Venezuela and the waters of the SE Caribbean south of 11.5N
between Trinidad and the ABC Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
section of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to near 06N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 04N36W to 02N40W, then continues W of
a tropical wave from 01N44W to 01S48W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered to
numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N-10N between the west coast of Africa and 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm either side of
the ITCZ between 26W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the special features section above for details on the broad
area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Surface ridging continues across the eastern Gulf of Mexico with
a high pressure of 1017 mb near 27N85W. This is bringing fair
weather conditions to the eastern half of the Gulf. Light to
gentle winds prevail under the high pressure in the eastern Gulf.
Closer to the broad low, fresh winds are seen south of 28N and
west of 91W. Gentle to moderate ESE winds will persist in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through this evening. The ridge will shift
eastward late tonight and on Wednesday. Expect SE to S return flow
for most of the basin through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are in the SE Caribbean. See Tropical Waves
section for details. Most of the Caribbean Sea is experiencing
fair weather due to mid-level ridging covering the northwestern
half of the basin. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered showers and
tstorms due to the East Pacific monsoon trough are seen SW of a
line from 09N76W to 13N83.5W. Latest ASCAT shows fresh winds over
the south-central Caribbean with moderate winds elsewhere, and
gentle in the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and Cuba. Fresh winds
are also likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras to the east of
Belize.

A ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the Caribbean Sea through midweek. A weak
inverted trough may develop to the north of Puerto Rico during the
next day or two, and remain in the area until Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 32N72W to the coast near Brunswick
Georgia, where it transitions to a stationary front. Isolated
showers and tstorms are near the front. A surface trough is
analyzed from 31N73W to 28N78W. Scattered showers and tstorms are
seen along and within 240 nm SE of the eastern part of the trough,
generally north of 27N between 68W-76W. Upper-level diffluence is
just to the east of that, leading to scattered moderate
convection north of 29N between 60W-65W, and isolated tstorms from
22N-26N between 62W-67W. ASCAT shows a surface trough is from
18N59W to 20N54W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 18N-
23N between 52W-57W. The remainder of the Atlantic is covered by
ridging.

A weak inverted trough may develop N of Puerto Rico during the
next day or two, and remain in the area until Friday. The trough
may weaken the ridge along 28N. Fairly tranquil marine conditions
are expected elsewhere in the forecast area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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