[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041150 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 22N96W has
decreased since yesterday and remains disorganized. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection extends outward 270 nm in
the eastern semicircle. This system could briefly become a
tropical depression before moving inland over northeastern
Mexico later today or tonight. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi
Valley during the next few days. Interests along the Gulf coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.  For more
information about the rainfall threat in the United States,
please see products issued by your local forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center. Also, see the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 21W from 12N southward. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is associated with this wave from
08N-04N between 22W-18W.

A second tropical wave is along 41W from 11N southward. Isolated
convection is seen within the vicinity of this wave, mainly south
of 03N. The TPW shows a surge of moistened air in association
with the wave.

A third tropical wave is along 57W from 13N southward. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the wave axis,
mainly south of 08N. The wave will help to enhance showers and
thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
section of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to near 06N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 03N40W, then continues W of a
tropical wave from 02N42W to 01N47W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted near Africa from 10N- 06N
between 17W-13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the special features section above for details on the broad
area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development. A surface trough extends
from this 1007 mb low from 24N97W to 19N94W. An area of strong
convection is in the central Bay of Campeche, noted from 23N-19N
between 96W-91W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be
expected with this activity.

Otherwise, surface ridging continues across the Gulf of Mexico
with a high pressure of 1017 mb near 26N84W. This is bringing
fair weather conditions to the eastern half of the Gulf. Light to
gentle winds under the high pressure in the eastern Gulf. Along
the northwestern Gulf coast, gentle to moderate east-southeasterly
winds are seen. Closer to the broad low, fresh winds are seen
south of 24N and west of 92W.

Broad low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico will drift NW toward
Tampico Mexico today with a diminishing chance of intensifying to
a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate ESE winds will
persist S of a ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico through
tonight. The ridge will shift eastward on Wednesday. Expect S to
SE return flow for most of the basin through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moisture persists across portions of the Lesser Antilles in
association with a mid-upper level trough over the eastern
Caribbean, and a surface trough that extends from near Guadeloupe
near 17N61W into the Atlantic. Isolated thunderstorms continue to
stream near the Lesser Antilles. In the SW Caribbean, the East
Pacific monsoon trough, located over Panama, continues to induce
isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 12N and west of 79W.
Fair weather prevails over the central and NW Caribbean due to a
mid- level ridge over the NW Caribbean. In the northeast to
northwest Caribbean, light to gentle trades are observed. Moderate
to fresh trades are north of Venezuela and Colombia in addition
to the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the Caribbean through midweek. A weak
inverted trough may develop to the north of Puerto Rico during the
next few days and remain in the area until Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 32N79W to 30N74W. Because of the
upper-level trough axis bringing upper-level diffluence, scattered
convection is seen within the vicinity of this trough from 31N-
29N between 69W-73W. Farther south, another surface trough extends
from Guadeloupe to 19N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
to the north of this feature, from 22N-19N between 53W-56W. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging,
anchored by a 1034 mb high near 42N38W.

A weak inverted trough may develop N of Puerto Rico during the
next few days and remain in the area until Friday. The trough
will weaken the ridge axis along 28N. Fairly tranquil marine
conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen/AKR
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