[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, seen along 26W from
09N southward and moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen with this feature 06N-00N between 25W-28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, seen along 46W from
13N-02N moving west around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are
developing near this wave from 07N-06N between 44W-49W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, extending south
along 64W from 13N-04N moving west around 15-20 kt. The portion
of the wave over the SE Caribbean is in a strong wind shear
environment. However, shallow moisture is supporting isolated
showers across the Windward Islands.

A tropical wave is entering the western Caribbean, extending south
along 76W between 20N-08N. Once again, this wave is in a strong
wind shear environment and no convection is associated with it at
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 06N22W. The ITCZ begins near 04N29W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated convection is seen along the monsoon
trough from 08N-06N between 21W-13W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen along the ITCZ from 06N-02N between 30W-34W. Isolated
convection is also seen near the ITCZ and the Brazilian coast from
02N-00N and near 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer moisture west of 91W along with upper-level divergence
is fueling scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western
half of the Gulf, mainly west of 89W. The broad low is now a
trough over eastern Mexico and is fueling the convective activity
over this area. Otherwise, upper level ridging over the central
and eastern Gulf along with surface ridging continue to keep the
eastern Gulf quiet with fair conditions. Light variable winds are
seen in the central and eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, gentle
to moderate southeasterly winds are seen with fresh winds to the
north of the Yucatan.

The surface trough in eastern Mexico is expected to drift west
farther inland. However, the moisture associated with this feature
will produce heavy rainfall across the western and central Gulf
coasts in addition to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. See the Weather Prediction Center and local NWS
forecast offices for more information on this. Meanwhile, fresh
to strong SE winds will persist over NW Gulf through Wednesday
night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate ESE winds through Wednesday
night. A new surface ridge will build over entire Gulf by Thursday
through Sunday.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough over the western Atlantic extends
south to the northeast Caribbean. This is ushering in moisture
with upper level divergence and fueling scattered showers across
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Thunderstorms fueled by sea breeze convergence along Cuba and
Hispaniola are entering the Caribbean, albeit weakening at this
time. Otherwise, upper level ridging is bringing strong
subsidence over the western Caribbean and keeping conditions fair.
The monsoon trough continues to be draped across Panama, fueling
strong convection--some of which is entering adjacent waters
mostly south of 11N between 80W-82W. Moderate to fresh trades are
seen across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle trades
in the western basin. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh trades in the
Gulf of Honduras with some strong winds south of 16N between 85W-
86W.

A ridge north of the area will maintain strong trade winds over
the Gulf of Honduras and elsewhere over the south central
Caribbean tonight through Thursday. The remainder of the
Caribbean will have moderate to fresh trade winds through Sunday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between a middle level ridge centered near the
Yucatan Channel and a trough along the western Atlantic support a
surface trough north of Puerto Rico from 27N63W to 20N65W. Low
level precipitable water imagery show abundant moisture associated
with this trough, which is generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms from 25N-21N between 56W-66W. A mid-level trough
digging across the western Atlantic is supporting isolated showers
and thunderstorms from 31N-28N between 60W-68W. Otherwise,
surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin from the
1033 mb Azores high near 39N36W and keeping conditions fair.

The weak inverted trough N of Puerto Rico will remain in the area
until Friday. The trough will weaken the 28N ridge. Fairly
tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast
area.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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