[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W remain
disorganized. The strongest convection is currently to the SE of
the low center affecting parts of Honduras, Guatemala and SE
Mexico. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward
toward the coast of Mexico, and may become a tropical cyclone
before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development,
the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the
disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the
Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
http://hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 18W from 11N southward. The wave shows
up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product.
Convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from
06-07N and between 16W-20W.

A second tropical wave is along 31W from 11N southward. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-06N between
30W-32W. The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in
association with the wave.

A third tropical wave is along 51W from 12N southward. Scattered
moderate convection is near the wave axis from 06N-08N. TPW shows
a high amplitude northward bulge of moisture between the wave and
the Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea/
Sierra Leone border near 09N13W, then continues to near 07N19W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 05N28W to 02N40W to 02N49W.
Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 07N between 12W and 15W, and from 02N to 06N
between 20W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
04N between 34W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A a broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of
Campeche near 20N94W. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
system a medium chance of tropical cyclone development. See the
Special Features section above for more details.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a
weak ridge, anchored by a 1015 mb high pressure located over the
eastern Gulf near 26N84W. Scatterometer data indicate light to
gentle winds across the eastern half of the Gulf, and mainly
moderate winds W of 92W, including the western Bay of Campeche.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of
a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will
shift east on Wed, and produce SE to S return flow for most of
the basin through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge N of the area is producing moderate to locally fresh
trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low
pressure persists across Central America, and is now producing
numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms over parts of
Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. This convective activity is
more concentrated over northern Guatemala. Abundant moisture
persists across the eastern Caribbean, ahead of a mid-to-upper
level trough that now extends from Dominican Republic to the SW
Caribbean. This is affecting the Lesser Antilles, but mainly S of
Guadeloupe, where some shower activity has been reported. Abundant
moisture is forecast to persist over the eastern Caribbean today
in a SE winds flow, keeping the likelihood of showers over the
Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A broad
trough is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic N of
Puerto Rico through Tue and drift NE through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1030 mb located near 35N43W dominates most of
the Atlantic forecast waters. The ridge axis extends SW reaching
the Bahamas. Mainly moderate trades are noted along the southern
periphery on the ridge based on scatterometer data, with the
exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds ahead of the
tropical wave located along 51W, just N of Hispaniola and in the
Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure will move NE over the next
24-48 hours while slightly strengthen. At the same time, a weak cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast, clipping the
waters E of NE Florida on Tue.

As previously mentioned, a broad trough is forecast to develop
across the western Atlantic N of Puerto Rico through Tue and drift
NE through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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