[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of
Campeche near 20.5N95W. However, recent satellite wind data show
the low does not have a well-defined circulation. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern
coast of Mexico, and may become a tropical cyclone before it moves
inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance
will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and
eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the disturbance this
afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 19W from 11N southward. The wave shows
up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis and just
N of the monsoon trough from 06 to 07.5N and between 16W and 20W.

A second tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 11N southward.
Scattered moderate convection can be found where the wave meets
the ITCZ from 05N to 06N between 31W and 33W. The TPW animation
shows a surge of moistened air in association with the wave.

A third tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward. Isolated
moderate convection is near the wave axis from 04N to 07N between
49W and 53W. TPW animation indicates a high amplitude northward
bulge of moisture between the wave and the Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
section of Sierra Leone, then continues to near 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N20W to 05N30W to 04N40W to 05N50W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
03N to 07N between 10W and 16W, and from 02N to 07N between 20W
and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
near 20.5N95W. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development. See the Special
Features section above for more details. A surface through
extends from the low center to near 23N97W. This trough is well
defined on scatterometer data, that also show moderate to fresh E
to SE winds E of the trough axis and NW winds in the 15 to 20 kt
range W of the trough axis. A cluster of moderate to strong
convection is to the SE of the low and covers the area from 19N
to 21N between 90W and 93W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping
to induce this convective activity. Some banding features are
also noted around the low center.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a
weak ridge, anchored by a 1015 mb high pressure located over the
eastern Gulf near 27N83W. The most recent scatterometer data
indicate light to gentle winds across the eastern half of the
Gulf. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist
south of a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The
ridge will shift east on Wed, and produce SE to S return flow for
most of the basin through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure persists across Central America, and
continues to support the development of showers and thunderstorms
over parts of Central America, particularly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Abundant moisture also persists across the
eastern Caribbean, ahead of a mid-to-upper level trough that now
extends from Dominican Republic to the SW Caribbean. This is
affecting the Lesser Antilles, but mainly S of Guadeloupe, where
some shower activity has been reported. Abundant moisture is
forecast to persist over the eastern Caribbean today in a SE winds
flow, keeping the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms over
the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A broad
trough is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic N of
Puerto Rico through Tue and drift NE through Fri.

A ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the Caribbean Sea through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1030 mb located near 35N44W dominates most of
the Atlantic forecast waters. The ridge axis extends SW reaching
the Bahamas. Mainly moderate trades are noted along the southern
periphery on the ridge based on scatterometer data, with the
exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds ahead of the
tropical wave located along 52W, just N of Hispaniola and in the
Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure will move NE over the next
24-48 hours while slightly strengthen. At the same time, a weak
cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast, clipping the
waters E of NE Florida on Tue.

As previously mentioned, a broad trough is forecast to develop
across the western Atlantic N of Puerto Rico through Tue and drift
NE through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net