[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing
disorganized scattered moderate isolated strong convection south
of 23N along with winds ranging from 15 to 20 kt. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico,
and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in
the next day or two. As of 18 UTC, it has a medium chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone before it moves inland. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall
over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few
days. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 16/17W from 10N southward. The Hovmoller
Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave, and it
shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW
product. Convection is noted near the wave axis from 07-03N and
between 14W-18W.

A second tropical wave is along 29W from 10N southward. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-02N between
27W-31W. The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in
association with the wave.

A third tropical wave is along 49W from 12N southward. Scattered
showers are near the wave axis from 07N- 03N. Earlier scatterometer
data indicated moderate to fresh NE to E winds ahead of the wave
axis, and N of 07N. TPW shows a surge of moisture in association
with the wave east of the axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea/
Sierra Leone border near 09N13W, then continues to near 05N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N27W, then continues west of a
tropical wave from 04N31W to 02N47W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-02N between
18W-27W and from 05N-01N between 31W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system is located over the southern Bay of Campeche
near 19N94W has a medium chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. A trough extends northwest from
the center of the low to 22N97W. See the Special Features section
above for more details. Another trough is noted north of the
Yucatan Peninsula from 24N84W to 21N87W.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a
weak ridge, anchored by a 1015 mb high pressure located near
29N93W. Doppler radar indicates scattered showers with embedded
isolated tstms along the East coast for Florida. Scatterometer
pass shows light to gentle winds across the northern Gulf and
moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 24N between 87W and 92W.

Elongated low pressure over the SW Gulf will drift W-NW through
tonight, before turning more NW towards Tampico Mexico Mon through
Tue, possibly intensifying to a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of a ridge
across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will shift
east on Wed, and produce S to SE return flow for most of the basin
through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Troughing persists over the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen over portions of the Greater
Antilles, Leeward and Windward Islands, Trinidad and the southern
Caribbean as far west as the ABC Islands. A 1010 mb low along the
East Pacific monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean near 10N77W.
A trough is seen 20N61W to 13N65W. Scattered moderate to strong
tstorms are over Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula in association with the low over the Bay of Campeche.
Mid-upper level anticyclonic flow covers the NW Caribbean, and a
surface ridge is protruding into the north-central Caribbean. As
a result, most of the area north of 12N between 70W-83W is having
fairly tranquil weather, other than isolated to scattered light
showers for portions of the area.

A ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW across the regional
Atlc along 27N-28N to the NW Bahamas and will maintain moderate
to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean through early
next week. Active weather associated with a broad area of low
pressure across Central America and southern Mexico is expected
along the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. The broad low will
drift northwest through Tue. Broad troughing will develop across
the W Atlc N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N69W extends SW as a stationary
front to 29N73W to 30N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the stationary front extending 100 to 180 nm southeast of
the boundary. Additionally convection is observed north of 26N
between 62W-67W. A 1029 mb high centered near 34N42W remains in
control across the basin. Scattered showers are noted north of 21N
to 29N between 45W-53W.

A ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW across the regional
Atlc along 27N-28N to the NW Bahamas will shift east-southeast
through Mon as a weak cold front moves off the southeastern U.S.
and becomes stationary NW of the area. High pressure will build
southward over the NW waters Mon night through Tue night. Fairly
tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere over the
forecast area. Broad low pres will develop across the W Atlc N of
Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net