[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing
disorganized scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms south
of 23N along with winds ranging from 15 to 20 kt. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico,
and it has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before
it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Interests
along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
http://hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 16/17W from 11N southward. The Hovmoller
Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave, and it
shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW
product. Convection is noted near the wave axis from 05-06N and
from 07.5N-09N between 14W-17W.

A second tropical wave is along 29W from 11N southward. Scattered
to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N-06N between 27W-34W. The TPW animation shows a
surge of moistened air in association with the wave, that is
collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models.

A third tropical wave is along 48/49W from 12N southward.
Scattered showers are near the wave axis from 02N-06N. The wave
is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer
models. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE to
E winds ahead of the wave axis, and N of 07N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea/
Sierra Leone border near 09N13W, then continues to near 05N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N27W, then continues west of a
tropical wave from 04N31W to 03N47W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N and 150 nm S of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 19W-27W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system is located over the southern Bay of Campeche
near 19.5N94.5W has a medium chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please see the Special Features
section for more details.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a
weak ridge, anchored by a 1014 mb high pressure located near
29N93W. Doppler radar indicates scattered showers with embedded
isolated tstms from 28N-29N between the Florida Big Bend and 89W.
A recent scatterometer pass shows light to gentle winds across the
northern Gulf and moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 24N
between 88W and 92W.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of
a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will
shift east on Wednesday, and produce S to SE return flow for most
of the basin through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Troughing persists over the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are seen over portions of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, Trinidad and the southern Caribbean as far west
as the ABC Islands. Scattered lighter showers are over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. A 1010 mb low along the East Pacific
monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean near 11N78W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen south of 12N between 75W-79W.
Scattered moderate to strong tstorms are over northern Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula in association with the low over the Bay of
Campeche. Mid-upper level anticyclonic flow covers the NW
Caribbean, and a surface ridge is protruding into the north-
central Caribbean. As a result, most of the area north of 13N
between 70W-83W is having fairly tranquil weather, other than
isolated to scattered light showers for portions of the area.

A ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Broad
troughing will develop across the W Atlc N of Puerto Rico late Tue
and drift NE through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 32N70W and extends SW to near
29N77W. A line of moderate to strong thunderstorms ahead of the
front is nearly continuous and about 60 nm wide, and extends from
32N64W to 29N68W to 28N72W to 32N77W as of 1700 UTC. The cold
front will continue to produce scattered to numerous thunderstorms
out ahead of it through today north of 27N between 63W-76W. The
front will weaken and dissipate south of 31N tonight as it
continues moving east.

Mid-upper level troughing extends from the NE Caribbean
northeastward into the Atlantic and covers the area from about
15N-25N between 55W-65W. As a result, cloudiness and scattered
showers are noted inside a box with points 14N60W 20N64W 29N46W
20N46W 14N60W. A weak surface trough is also analyzed from 17N64W
to 21N61W. Looking ahead, a broad low pressure is forecast to
develop from this troughing and cloudiness to the north of Puerto
Rico late Tuesday, then drift NE through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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