[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This
system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early this week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
http://hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface map
along 15W from 11N southward. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates
the westward propagation of the wave, and it shows up well as
a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Convection is
noted at the base of this wave, and also near 08N15W.

A second tropical wave is along 28W from 11N southward. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave
meets the ITCZ, particularly from 04N to 06N between 27W and 29W.
The TPW animation shows a surge of moistened air in association
with the wave, that is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the
global computer models.

A third tropical wave is along 46W from 12N southward. Convection
is limited near the wave axis. The wave is collocated with a 700
mb trough, from the global computer models. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds ahead of the wave
axis, and N of 07N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea/
Sierra Leone border, then continues to near 05N22W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N22W to 04N35W to NE Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06N
between 20W and 30W, and within about 75 nm N of the ITCZ axis
between 30W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
06N between 10W and 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system is located over the southern Bay of Campeche
near 20N95W. The strongest convection associated with this system
is to NE of the low center. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a
weak ridge, anchored on a 1014 mb high pressure located near
27N87W. Doppler radar indicates a line of showers and tstms
between Apalachicola in the Florida panhandle and SE Louisiana. A
recent scatterometer pass shows light to gentle winds across the
northern Gulf, and just along the ridge axis, and moderate to
fresh easterly winds S of 24N between 87W and 92W.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of
a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will
shift E of the Gulf on Wed to produce a SE to S return flow for
most of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge N of the area is producing moderate to locally fresh
trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low
pressure persists across Central America, helping to induce some
convective activity from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala.
Abundant moisture, with embedded showers is noted ahead of a mid-
to upper level trough that extends from Puerto Rico to the ABC
Islands. This is affecting the Lesser Antilles, where some shower
activity has been reported. These weather conditions will persist
today, keeping the likelihood of showers in the eastern Caribbean
and the Lesser Antilles. Moisture is also forecast to increase
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. This combined with
the local effects and diurnal heating will produce scattered
showers across the eastern part of the island in the morning, then
across western Puerto Rico in the afternoon.

Looking ahead, a broad low pressure is forecast to develop across
the western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift
NE through Thu, helping to maintain a moderate to fresh tradewind
flow across the basin. As of 0600 UTC, a surface trough is
analyzed from 22N64W to Puerto Rico near 18N66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1027 mb located near 33N41W dominates most of
the Atlantic forecast waters. A cold front enters the area near
31N73W, and extends SW to near 29N79W. A band of showers and
thunderstorms is within about 120 nm ahead of the front N of 29N.
Mainly moderate trades are noted along the southern periphery on
the ridge based on scatterometer data.

As previously mentioned, a broad low pressure is forecast to
develop across the western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late
Tue and drift NE through Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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