[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This
system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
http://hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A couple of tropical waves are noted between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 12N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. The wave is collocated with
a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 12N
southward. Convection is limited near the wave axis. The wave is
collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models.
Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E
winds ahead of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N13W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 03N35W to
NE Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within about 75 nm N of the ITCZ axis between
24W and 36W. Similar convection is seen from 02N to 04N between
21W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system is located over the southern Bay of Campeche.
Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a
weak ridge. Doppler radar indicates the presence of some showers
and thunderstorms just SE of Lake Okeechobee in the Florida
peninsula and near SE Louisiana. A recent scatterometer pass shows
light to gentle winds across the northern Gulf and just along the
ridge axis, and moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 24N W of
87W, including the Bay of Campeche.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of
a ridge across the northern Gulf through Tue night. The ridge will
shift E of the Gulf Wed to produce SE to S return flow across all
but NE portions of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge N of the area is producing moderate to locally fresh
trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low
pressure persists across Central America, helping to induce some
convective activity from western Panama to Guatemala. Abundant
moisture, with embedded showers is noted ahead of a mid-to upper
level trough that extends from Puerto Rico to the ABC Islands.
This is affecting the Lesser Antilles, where some shower activity
has been reported. These weather conditions will persist on
Sunday, keeping the likelihood of showers in the eastern Caribbean
and the Lesser Antilles. Moisture is also forecast to increase
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sun. This combined with
the local effects and diurnal heating will produce scattered
showers across the eastern part of the island in the morning,
then in the afternoon across western Puerto Rico.

Looking ahead, a broad low pres is forecast to develop across the
western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late Tue and drift NE
through Thu, and help to maintain moderate to fresh tradewind
flow across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1027 mb located near 32N41W dominates most of the
Atlantic forecast waters. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front enters the
area near 31N74W, and extends SW to near 29N79W. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is ahead of the front N of 30N. Mainly
moderate trades are noted along the southern periphery on the
ridge based on scatterometer data.

As previously mentioned, a broad low pres is forecast to develop
across the western Atlantic to the N of Puerto Rico late Tue and
drift NE through Thu

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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