[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S29W to
00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N between 06W-23W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 00N-03N between 34W-
39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 26N97W to 19N95W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are west of 94W from 23N-27N.
A 1029 mb high over Mississippi extends a ridge over most of the
Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds over the
eastern half of the basin, with strong SE winds over the western
half. The broad ridge of high pressure centered north of the area
will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. Moderate
easterly flow will slowly veer to southeastward through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front extends over E Cuba near
20N75.5W and ends near 19N76W. Isolated showers prevail over
portions of Cuba, Jamaica and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds over the central and eastern
Caribbean, with strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. High
pressure will strengthen over the western north Atlantic during
the next few days, and bring increasing trade winds and building
seas to most of the south-central Caribbean, with strongest winds
expected near the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W
to the Florida Straits near 23.5N82W. A cold front extends from
31N62W to 25N70W and continues as stationary from 25N70W to
20N75.5W. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of both fronts. The
CIRA Layered Precipitable Water product shows a band of enhanced
low-level moisture about 120 nm wide along with the front that is
farther east. A pair of surface troughs is noted farther east.
The weaker trough is along 45W from 25N to 16N, and the other
trough extends from 20N37W to 12N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 16N-24N between 34W-42W. A large upper-level
low centered near 20N40W is enhancing this convection. A 1025 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N29W.

High pressure centered over the eastern U.S. will gradually shift
east through the weekend. Moderate northeast winds will slowly
veer to eastward through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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