[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to 02N43W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is from 00N-06N between 08W-23W. Scattered
showers are from 06N-14N between the west coast of Africa and 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the Florida Straits from
Andros Island near 25N79W to W Cuba near 22N84W. Isolated showers
are over the Florida Straits. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf
from 26N96W to 19N94W. Isolated showers are between the trough and
the coast of Mexico. A surface high over the Ohio Valley extends a
ridge over the northern and central Gulf. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern half of the
basin, while fresh E to SE winds prevail over the western half.
The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the upcoming
weekend producing a moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE wind
flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front extends through the Windward
Passage from 21N73W to 18N75W. Isolated showers are along and within
210 nm west of the front to include portions of Jamaica and
eastern Cuba. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
tradewinds over the central and eastern Caribbean, with strongest
winds near the coast of Colombia. High pressure will strengthen
over the western north Atlantic during the next few days. This
will bring increasing trade winds and building seas across the
south-central Caribbean with the strongest winds near the coast of
Colombia each night through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to Andros Island
near 25N79W and continues as a stationary front to W Cuba near
22N84W. A second, slightly stronger stationary front extends from
31N63W to 26N70W to the Windward Passage near 19N74W. Isolated
showers are over the Florida Straits near the first front.
Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the second front, including
over portions of eastern Cuba and the southeast and central
Bahamas. The CIRA Layered Precipitable Water product shows a band
of enhanced low-level moisture about 120 nm wide along with the
second stationary front. A pair of surface troughs are noted
farther east. The first is along 45W from 25N to 16N, and the
second extends from 20N37W to 12N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N-24N between 34W-43W. A large upper-level
low centered near 19N40W is enhancing this convection. A 1027 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N28W.

The cold front extending from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas will merge
early this morning with the stationary front that stretches from
31N63W to the Windward Passage. The merged front will reach a
position from 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by tonight, then stall on
Fri while gradually dissipating. High pressure building over the
forecast waters in the wake of the front tonight and Fri will
support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the waters N of
23N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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