[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S35W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 00N-05N between 05W-10W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 02S-06N between 13W-23W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01S-04S between 36W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 26N97W to 20N96W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Further N,
Isolated moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 25N-29N
between 92W-97W, mostly due to an upper level trough. 15-20 kt
surface easterly flow is over most of the Gulf of Mexico with
strongest winds W of 90W.

A broad ridge of surface high pressure, centered north of the
area, will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. Moderate
easterly wind flow will veer to southeastward, slowly, through
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds in the Gulf of
Honduras. Patches of broken low clouds and scattered showers are
moving W in the tradewind flow namely over the E Caribbean E of
70W, E Cuba, Jamaica and the W Caribbean from 14N-19N between
76W-82W, the Gulf of Honduras, Belize, Honduras, and N Nicaragua.

High pressure will strengthen in the western North Atlantic Ocean
during the next few days. Expect increasing tradewinds and
building seas over most of the south central Caribbean Sea. The
strongest winds will be near the coast of Colombia each night
through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 31/1500 UTC, scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from
the N Bahamas to 31N, and W of 75W. A cold front is over the w
Atlantic from 31N61W to 26N67W. A stationary front continues to E
Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front.
A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 25N44W to
17N45W. Another surface front is from 17N38W to 12N40W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 18N-25N between 35W-42W. this
convection is also enhanced by a large upper level low centered
near 20N41W.

Over the W Atlantic, surface high pressure centered over the
eastern U.S. will shift eastward gradually through the weekend.
Moderate northeast winds will veer eastward, slowly, through
Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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