[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warnings...

A cold front extends from West Palm Beach Florida to Havana Cuba.
An ASCAT pass from around 28/0300 UTC indicates that N gales over
the SE Gulf of Mexico are confined to the area east of a line
from 22N86W to 25N83W. These gales will end by 06 UTC or 09 UTC
this morning as the front clears the basin. Another cold front
will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales and seas building
up to 11 feet W of the front.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from near 23N82W to 19N85W to 15N89W. An
ASCAT pass from around 28/0300 UTC shows N gales from 19N to W
Cuba between the front and 86W, including over the eastern
portion of the Yucatan Channel. The N gales in the NW Caribbean
are expected to end by 06 UTC or 09 UTC today, with seas to 11
ft diminishing to 9 ft by late morning. The front will move SE
with gradually diminishing wind speeds.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Two surface lows - one near 30N75W and the other near 27N79W - are
connected to a frontal system that runs from 32N71W to 30N75W to
27N79W to West Palm Beach Florida. The lows are propagating NE
along the front as the front moves E. N gales across the NW waters
and offshore waters of NE and central Florida will shift NE through
today and develop on either side of the front. The gales will
propagate E, and be N of 29N E of 75W by early this afternoon,
and north of the area by this evening.

Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings
above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 03N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are moderate convection is S of 04N
between 00W and 35W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are S of
03N between 35W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near West Palm Beach
Florida to the lower Florida Keys to near Havana Cuba and into the
NW Caribbean. Gales are over the SE Gulf. See section above for
details. Scattered showers are in the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of
85W. Numerous showers are over Florida. A line of strong
thunderstorms along the cold front extends over the Florida
Straits to Cuba, east of Havana. Higher pressure and mostly clear
skies cover the Gulf W of 85W.

The cold front will shift E of the area within the next hour or
two. The gales in the SE Gulf of Mexico are expected to end by 06
UTC or 09 UTC today as the front pushes eastward. Another cold
front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales expected W
of the front Tue. The front will stall over the southern Gulf Wed
where it will dissipate through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Havana Cuba near
23N82W to 19N85W to the Honduras/Guatemala border near 15N89W.
Gales are occurring over portions of the NW Caribbean. See section
above for details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from
20N to the S coast of Cuba between 80W and the cold front.
Isolated showers are noted from the N coast of Honduras to 20N, W
of 85W. The N gales in the NW Caribbean are expected to end by 06
UTC or 09 UTC today. The front will move SE and stall from central
Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua tonight and gradually dissipate
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0300 UTC, a pair of 1006 mb lows - one near 30N75W and the
other near 27N79W - are connected with a stationary front between
them. A warm front extends NE of the northern low to beyond
32N71W, and a cold front extends SW from the southern low to West
Palm Beach Florida to the lower Florida Keys to Havana Cuba. A
line of moderate to strong thunderstorms is seen along and within
120 nm east of the front from Cuba to 31N, including portions of
the NW Bahamas and the waters to the east of South Florida.
Scattered showers are elsewhere NW of a line from central Cuba to
the central Bahamas to 30N68W.

High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters between 45W and 65W as
a ridge axis extends from high pressure centered near the Azores
to near Hispaniola. Farther east, a 1012 mb surface low is
centered near 24N38W with an occluded front wrapping N and NE of
the low to near 31N37W to 31N32W. A surface trough that is related
to the low pressure system is analyzed from 27N31W to 21N32W to
16N35W. These surface features along with an upper low support
scattered moderate convection from 23N-32N between 23W-37W.

The low near 30N75W will move N of the area early this morning
while the low near 27N79W will move across the NW waters early
this morning, and then to the waters between Bermuda and the
Carolinas later today. Gales are present N of the NW Bahamas E of
N and central Florida. See section above for more details. The
front will start to shift southeast in the wake of the low
pressure, reaching from 31N71W to E central Cuba by this evening,
before stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move
off the northeast Florida coast Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net