[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warnings...

A 1005 mb surface low pressure area is over the south central
Gulf and an associated cold front extends from the low to
southeastern Mexico. Gale force northerly winds continue within a
couple hundred nm north of the cold front. These gales will end
late tonight as the front clears the basin. Another cold front
will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales and seas building
up to 11 feet W of the front. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details on the warnings above.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A cold front over the SW Gulf of Mexico is about to enter the
Western Caribbean Sea this evening and move across the NW
Caribbean through Mon. Brief northerly gales are expected just
behind the front across the Yucatan Channel this evening through
early tonight, with seas to 11 ft. The front will move SE and
stall from central Cuba to SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and
gradually dissipate Tue. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details on the warnings above.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure is just E of central Florida, along a frontal
boundary that extends across south Florida and the southern Gulf
of Mexico. The low pressure will move NE and will be N of the
area tonight while a second low pressure along the front over the
Gulf of Mexico crosses South Florida late this evening, then the
NW Bahamas tonight and between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon.
Northerly gales over the N semicircle of the low will shift NW of
the area early Mon. Meanwhile, northerly gales will accompany the
second low and associated cold front as they move east of Florida
late tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the
warnings above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is S of 05N between 12W and 26W and
from 00N to 04N between 01W and 06W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across south Florida to a 1005 mb surface
low near 24N85W. A cold front extends SW of the low and across the
Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of the frontal system and
surface low, and strong upper level forcing due to an upper trough
in the region is supporting widespread showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the eastern half of the Gulf basin. Gale force
winds are also occurring over portions of the basin. Refer to the
Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the
gales, fresh to strong northerly winds cover most of the Gulf to
the north of the fronts, except gentle to moderate over the NW
Gulf near high pressure. Fresh to strong southerly winds are over
the extreme SE Gulf, to the south of the front.

The low and cold front will shift E of the area tonight. Another
cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales
expected W of the front Tue. The front will stall over the
southern Gulf Wed where it will dissipate through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is just about to cross
the Yucatan Channel, and move across the NW Caribbean this
evening through Monday. As of 2100 UTC it extended from 23N85W to
19N89W. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is within 90 nm
SE of the frontal boundary. Brief northerly gales are expected
just behind the front across the Yucatan Channel this evening and
early tonight. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba
to the SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and gradually dissipate
Tue. Otherwise, most of the Caribbean Sea is relatively quiet with
only typical isolated trade wind showers over the eastern
Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades cover the south central
Caribbean, while mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere
over the central and eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front extends from 31N74W to a 1008 mb surface low
pressure area near 28N79W. A stationary front extends from this
low to south Florida. A surface trough is east of the front and
extends from 31N66W to 28N74W. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of the frontal system and surface trough
to beyond 31N, and within about 180 nm S of these features. Gale
force winds are occurring over northern semicircle of the low.
Please refer to the special features section for more details.

High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters between 45W and 65W as
a ridge axis extends from high pressure centered near the Azores
to near Hispaniola. Farther east, a 1010 mb surface low is
centered near 25N39W with an occluded front wrapping north and
east of the low to near 31N36W to 31N31W, then transitioning to a
cold front to near 20N31W. These surface features along with an
upper low support scattered moderate convection from 21N to 31N
between 23W and 36W. Also associated with this system is a surface
trough that extends from 17N30W to 12N40W.

The low E of Florida will move N of the area tonight while a
second low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move across south
Florida this evening. This second low will move across the NW
Bahamas and NW waters tonight, and then to the waters between
Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon. N gales across the NW waters and
offshore waters of NE and central Florida will shift NE tonight
through Mon and develop on either side of the front. The front
will start to shift southeast in the wake of the low pressure,
reaching from 31N71W to E central Cuba by Mon evening, before
stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast Tue night.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

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Latto
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