[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1001 mb low near 29.5N76W is along a front that extends from
32N72W to 29.5N76W to 25N79W to 22.5N80W. N gales across the NW
waters and offshore waters of NE and central Florida will shift NE
today and develop on either side of the front N of 28N. Seas of
12-15 ft will prevail today across portions of the waters N of the
NW Bahamas. The gales will move north of the area by this evening.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Another cold front will enter the Gulf early Tue morning, with
northerly gales expected NW of the front as it moves off the Texas
coast Tue morning. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft W of the
front. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 03N15W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 01S29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between
the coast of Liberia and 14W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of 03N between 25W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb surface high is centered near 27N92W, with weak surface
ridging covering the Gulf west of 84W. Gentle winds cover the Gulf
W of 89W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are over the SE Gulf
S of 27N E of 84W along with fresh to strong N winds.

The high pressure over the NW Gulf will slide E through tonight.
Strong N winds and high seas across the S and SE Gulf will slowly
diminish today. Another cold front will enter the Gulf early
Tue morning, with northerly gales expected NW of the front as it
moves off the Texas coast Tue morning. The front will move SE and
stall over the southern Gulf from the Straits of Florida to near
Tampico, Mexico Wed then drift northward and weaken through Fri.
High pressure N of this front will induce fresh to strong E to SE
winds north of the boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near
22.5N80W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front N of 17N. Strong N
winds are in the W Caribbean W of the front. The front will move
SE through tonight, then begin to stall from E Cuba to the SE
coast of Nicaragua. Strong N winds behind the front will continue
to gradually diminish today, and remain strong as the front moves
past the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua through this evening.
The front will gradually dissipate Tue through Wed as a
reinforcing front moves to the Straits of Florida Thu morning and
stalls. High pressure will build from the Atlc into the NE Carib
late Thu and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0900 UTC, a 1001 mb low is centered near 29.5N76W. A
stationary front extends NW from the low to 32N72W, and a cold
front extends SSW from the low to the NW Bahamas near 25N79W to
central Cuba near 22.5N80W. Gales are occurring west of the front
N of the NW Bahamas. See section above for details. A broken line
of moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms is seen along and
within 90 nm east of the front from Cuba to 28N. N of 28N,
stronger thunderstorms are along and within 150 nm east of the
front. Scattered showers are seen N of 27N between the SE U.S.
coastline and the front.

High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters between 45W and 65W as
a ridge axis extends from high pressure centered just N of the
Azores to just N of Puerto Rico. Farther east, a 1011 mb surface
low is centered near 24N38W. A surface trough that is related to
the low pressure system is analyzed from 27N30W to 22N31W to
17N35W. These surface features along with an upper low support
scattered moderate convection N of 26N between 23W-37W.

N gales across the NW waters and offshore waters of NE and central
Florida will shift NE today and develop on either side of the
front N of 28N. The low near 29.5N76W will move NE and out of the
area today as the front shifts SE, and stalls from 31N65W to E
central Cuba Tue evening. Another cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast Tue night and sink SE, stalling from 30N65W to the
NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Thu afternoon. High pressure
building behind this front will produce fresh to strong NE to E
winds NW of the front through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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