[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

On Sun 27/1800 UTC, a stationary front is forecast to be over the
Gulf of Mexico from 25N81W to a 1011 mb low near 22N93W. Gale-force
winds are forecast from 22N-25N and W of 91W with seas to 12 ft.
These conditions will continue through at least the next 12 hours.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
09N13W and extends to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of South America near 00N47W. Scattered showers are
noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge anchored by several high pressure centers near the
middle Mississippi valley extends south and covers the Gulf of
Mexico. The pressure gradient between a stationary front over W
Cuba to Belize and the ridge across the basin support moderate to
fresh north-northeasterly winds. A cold front, currently east of
the area, will transition and gradually lift northward into the
southeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend. By Sun, a low pressure is
expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the SW Gulf,
then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic Mon. Gale
conditions are forecast in the southwest Gulf by then. Refer to
the section above for details. High pressure will rebuild across
the region behind the exiting low early next week. Another cold
front will enter the Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from W Cuba near 22N80W to the Yucatan
Channel near 21N85W to Belize near 16N89W. Scattered showers are
noted within 60 nm of the front. Shallow moisture prevails across
the remainder of the basin supporting scattered showers currently
moving west mainly east of 70W.

Expect the stationary front over the Yucatan Channel to dissipate
through early Sat. A weak cold front will move through the
Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall and dissipate over the
northwest Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds
will persist across the south central Caribbean through Sun, then
diminish next week as high pressure north of the area shifts
eastward. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the
Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N67W to 25N73W to 23N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the front mainly N
of 27N between 65W-71W. A 1031 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 35N49W, with its ridge extending between
45W-70W. To the east, a deep layered 1008 mb low is centered near
28N34W. A cold front is E of this low from 31N33W to 25N30W to
17N41W to 17N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
of the front mainly north of 20N.

The W Atlantic cold front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to
western Cuba Sat. A second front will move off northeast Florida
tonight then stall from 31N72W to West Palm Beach Florida through
early Sun. Weak low pressure along the stalled front over the Gulf
of Mexico will move northeast across the Bahamas Sun then to the
waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Sun night. The front will
shift southeast Mon in the wake of the low pressure, reaching
from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, before stalling and
dissipating farther east Tue. Another cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast by Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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