[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261148
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

On Sun 27/0600 UTC, a stationary front is forecast to be over the
Gulf of Mexico from 25N81W to a 1011 mb low near 22N93W. Gale-
force winds are forecast from 22N-25N and W of 91W with seas to 12
ft. These conditions will continue through at least the next 12
hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

On Sun night, a cold front is expected to enter the northwest
Caribbean, extending from 27N81W to 20N87.5W. Gale-force winds
are expected N of the front, with seas up to 9 ft. These
conditions will subside within the next 6 hours. Please refer to
the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
12N16W and extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of South America near 04S38W. No significant
convection is observed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure center located
near 33N85W. The pressure gradient between a stationary front
over W Cuba to Belize and the ridge across the basin support
moderate to fresh northerly winds. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

A stationary front, currently east of the area, will transition
and gradually lift northward into the southeast Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. By Sun, a low pressure is expected to develop along
the frontal boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida
and the western Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are forecast in the
northwest Gulf by then. Refer to the section above for details.
High pressure will rebuild across the region behind the exiting
low early next week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from W Cuba near 22N80W to the Yucatan
Channel near 21N85W to Belize near 16N89W. Scattered showers are
noted within 60 nm of the front. Shallow moisture prevails across
the remainder of the basin supporting scattered showers currently
moving west mainly east of 70W.

Expect the stationary front over the Yucatan Channel to dissipate
today. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel by Sun
night, then stall and dissipate over the northwest Caribbean early
next week. Gale-force winds are expected behind the front across
the northwest Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details.
Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south central
Caribbean through Sun, then diminish next week as high pressure
north of the area shifts eastward. NW swell prevailing over the
Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 32N68W to 23N74W
to 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the
front mainly N of 27N between 65W-71W. A 1030 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 36N48W, with its ridge extending
between 45W-70W. To the east, a deep layered 1006 mb low is
centered near 27N34W. A cold front is E of this low from 31N31W
to 21N30W to 15N40W, then becomes weak from that point to 16N60W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
front mainly north of 23N.

The W Atlantic front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to
western Cuba today. A second front will stall from 31N72W to West
Palm Beach Florida through early Sun. Weak low pressure along the
stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across
the Bahamas Sun then to the waters between Bermuda and the
Carolinas Sun night. The front will shift southeast Mon in the
wake of the low pressure, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by
late Mon, before stalling and dissipating farther east Tue.
The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by
Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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