[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

On Sun 27/1800 UTC a stationary front is forecast to be over the
Gulf of Mexico from 25N81W to a 1011 mb low near 21N90W. Gale
force winds are forecast S of 21N and W of 94W with seas to 10 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
07N12W and extends to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 01N30W to 03N43W to the coast of South America near 01N50W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm N of the ITCZ, W of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge anchored by several high pressure centers near the
middle Mississippi valley extends south and covers the Gulf of
Mexico. The pressure gradient between a stationary front over W
Cuba to Belize and the ridge across the basin support moderate to
fresh north-northeasterly winds. The stationary front will
gradually lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. On
Sunday, low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal
boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the
western Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are forecast in the
southwest Gulf on Sun. High pressure will rebuild across the
region behind the exiting low early next week. Another cold front
will enter the Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 25/2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from W Cuba near
23N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W to Belize near 17N88W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. The remainder of
the Caribbean has patches of shallow moisture across the NE
Caribbean supporting isolated showers including the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Expect the stationary front over the Yucatan Channel to dissipate
through early Sat. A weak cold front will move through the
Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall and dissipate over the
northwest Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds
will persist across the south central Caribbean through Sun, then
diminish next week as high pressure north of the area shifts
eastward. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the
Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to the central
Bahamas near 24N76W to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 27N between 67W-71W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1030 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 25N50W. A deep layered
1008 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N34W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the low. A cold front is E
of this low from 31N33W to 25N30W to 20N34W. The front continues
SW to 18N40W to 16N50W to 17N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm E of the front, N of 23N. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 60 nm of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, the W Atlantic cold front will stall and
weaken from Bermuda to western Cuba Sat. A second front will move
off northeast Florida tonight then stall from 31N72W to West Palm
Beach Florida through early Sun. Weak low pressure along the
stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across
the Bahamas Sun then to the waters between Bermuda and the
Carolinas Sun night. The front will shift southeast Mon in the
wake of the low pressure, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by
late Mon, before stalling and dissipating farther east Tue.
Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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