[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241809
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic...

A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N
Atlantic today. Strong SW winds ahead of the front are forecast
to increase to gale-force this morning N of 29N and W of 77W. The
winds will decrease to below gale-force by 0000 UTC Fri. For
additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
10N14W and extends to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
from 00N-09N between 16W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strengthening low pressure system centered over the Southeast
U.S. is dragging its cold front over the eastern Gulf. The front
currently extends from 29N82W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W.
A squall line is observed ahead of the front across the Florida
Peninsula into the Gulf near 26N82W to 24N84W. A 1021 mb high
pressure building in the wake of the front is keeping fresh to
strong winds across the western portion of the basin under fair
weather. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are organized 23N-26N
between 84W-83W.

A cold front extending from northern Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula will continue to move across the Gulf waters, shifting
E of the area late today. High pressure in the wake of the front
will dominate the Gulf waters through Sat. Winds and seas will
increase Sat into Sun over the southern Gulf as another frontal
boundary moves through the basin. High pressure will build again
across the region early next week. The next cold front is forecast
to enter the Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1034 mb high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread
fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean basin.
Scatterometer data shows E fresh to strong winds south of
Hispaniola to Southwestern Caribbean to moderate winds across the
western Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will maintain
strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through today. A cold
front will move into the northwest Caribbean late today, then
stall and dissipate from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
late Fri. NW swell moving into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands
will subside through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a
cold front extends from 31N35W to 23N39W. A stationary
dissipating front from that point to 19N64W. Scattered moderate
showers are present in the vicinity of the front. Surface ridging
extending from high pressure N of the Azores prevails across the
eastern Atlantic.

Strong southerly winds north of the Bahamas and off northeast
Florida will increase to gale force north of 29N today ahead of a
cold front moving off Florida this morning. The front will stall
and dissipate from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat, ahead of a
reinforcing front moving into the region. The second front will
stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Sun. Weak low
pressure may form along the front over the Bahamas Mon and move
northeast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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