[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic...

A cold front is moving off the Florida coast into the SW N
Atlantic this evening. Gale-force S winds ahead of the front
are located N of 29N and E of 73W, as observed by a scatterometer
pass this afternoon. The winds will decrease to below Gale force
shortly - by 0000 UTC Fri. For additional information, please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
08N13W and extends to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
from 01N-04N between 10W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Florida to the west
tip of Cuba, then to the Yucatan of Mexico where it becomes a
stationary front. A 1022 mb high is centered on the coast at the
Louisiana-Texas border.  Northerly winds behind the front have
diminished quickly during the day and are at fresh breeze or lower
across the Gulf currently. Peak seas have also dropped to 8-9 ft
from northerly swell. The Gulf has no organized deep convection
currently, though there are some residual scattered showers within
60 nm of the front.

High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the Gulf
waters through Sat before another frontal boundary moves through
the basin Sun. Another cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf on
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front currently extends from the west tip of Cuba to the
Yucatan of Mexico, where it becomes a stationary front. Scattered
showers are present within 60 nm of the front. A moderate pressure
gradient induced by a 1032 mb high centered east of Bermuda is
helping to promote easterly tradewinds across the Caribbean at
generally fresh breeze or weaker. The exception is over the south
central Caribbean, where ship PBAD is currently reporting 40 kt,
though quality control of its observations suggest that it has a
high bias of 10-15 kt. Their significant wave height of 11 ft,
however, goes appear reasonable.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong NE
winds over much of the Caribbean through tonight. The cold front
will move into the northwest Caribbean this evening, then stall
and dissipate from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late
Fri. NW swell moving into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands will
subside through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N76W to the east
central coast of Florida at 27N80W. A pre-frontal squall line is
located about 120 nm southeast of the front, and is affecting
extreme south Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. The front
will stall and dissipate from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat,
ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the region. The second
front will stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late
Sun. Weak low pressure may form along the front over the Bahamas
Mon and move northeast.

Farther east a cold front extends from 32N34W southwestward to
19N53W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front to
19N65W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 180 nm of the
cold front north of 23N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net