[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 30N85W to
18N92W. Gale-force NW to N winds will continue N of 24N and E of
the front through the next 24 hours. For additional information,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE
winds over much of the Caribbean through tonight, with gale-
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia. These conditions
will continue through 1200 UTC today. For additional information,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic...

A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N
Atlantic today. Strong SW winds ahead of the front are forecast
to increase to gale-force this morning N of 29N and W of 77W. The
winds will decrease to below gale-force by 0000 UTC Fri. For
additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco...

Meteo France is forecasting ongoing gale-force winds through the
morning hours near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
AGADIR. For additional information, please visit the Meteo France
website at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia in western
Africa near 10N14W and extends to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 03N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the ITCZ from
00N-07N between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 mb surface high is centered over the northeast Atlantic
with a ridge axis extending southwestward over Florida into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system is
centered over northern Georgia and is dragging its cold front
over the Gulf. The front currently extends from 30N85W to 19N92W.
Gale-force winds are currently ongoing ahead the front over a
portion of the northeast Gulf waters. Refer to the Special
Features section above for more details. Strong to near gale-force
winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are organized in a line within 150 nm E of the front
mainly N of 24N.

The cold front will continue to move across the Gulf waters
today, shifting E of the area through the next 18 hours. Winds
and seas will diminish across the Gulf on today as the front
moves southeast of the region. Winds and seas will increase this
weekend as another frontal boundary moves through the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1032 mb high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread
fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean basin.
Earlier scatterometer data showed gale-force winds near the coast
of Colombia. Expect for these winds to prevail through tonight,
with gale-force winds pulsing off of Colombia's coast through this
morning. Refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure
shifts east ahead of another cold front. This cold front is
expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The
front will stall and dissipate from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a
cold front extends from 31N38W to 23N44W to 21N53W. It continues
as a stationary front from 21N53W to 19N63W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 25N between 33W-38W. Surface ridging extending
from high pressure N of the Azores prevails across the eastern
Atlantic.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will weaken late this
week. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
maintain fresh to strong winds over the central Atlantic waters
through tonight. High pressure over the western Atlantic will
shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of
Florida today. Southerly gale-force winds will prevail N of 29N W
of 77W. Refer to the Special Features section for more details.
This front will stall and dissipate from Bermuda to eastern Cuba
by Sat. A weak reinforcing front will move off northeast Florida
by late Sat, and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
late Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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