[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 30N87W to
18N93W. Gale-force NW to N winds will continue S of 26N and west
of the front through Thu morning. For additional information,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE
winds over much of the Caribbean through Thu night, with gale-
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight, then
developing again by Thu night. For additional information, please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic...

A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N
Atlantic on Thu. Strong SW winds ahead of the front are forecast
to increase to gale-force by Thu morning N of 29N E of the front
to 74W. The winds will decrease to below gale-force by 0000 UTC
Fri. For additional information, please read the High Seas
Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco...

Meteo France is forecasting ongoing gale-force winds tonight near
the coast of Morocco in the marine zone AGADIR. The gale may
continue into the day on Thu. For additional information, please
visit the Meteo France website at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia in western
Africa near 08N13W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the ITCZ from
01N-06N between 16W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1034 mb surface high is centered over the northeast Atlantic
with a ridge axis extending southwestward over Florida into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system is
over eastern Alabama dragging a cold front over the Gulf. The
front extends from 30N87W to 18N93W. Gale-force winds are
currently ongoing behind the front over a portion of the western
Gulf. Refer to the Special Features section above for more
details. Strong to near gale-force winds cover the remainder of
the Gulf. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are organized in a
line within 150 nm E of the front mainly N of 24N.

The cold front will continue to move across the Gulf waters
tonight, shifting E of the area through the next 24 hours. Winds
and seas will diminish across the Gulf on Thu as the front moves
southeast of the region. Winds and seas will increase this weekend
as another frontal boundary moves through the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1034 mb high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread
fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean basin.
Earlier scatterometer data showed gale-force winds near the coast
of Colombia. Expect for these winds to prevail through Thu night,
with gale-force winds pulsing off of Colombia's coast at night.
Refer to the Special Features section for more details. Expect
seas well over 8 feet for much of the central Caribbean through
Thu night, highest over the south-central Caribbean, where 10-15
ft seas are expected.

Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure
shifts east ahead of another cold front. This cold front is
expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The
front will stall and dissipate from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a
cold front extends from 32N40W to 20N58W. It continues as a
stationary front from 20N58W to 19N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 25N between 34W-40W. Surface ridging extending
from high pressure N of the Azores prevails across the eastern
Atlantic.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will weaken late this
week. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
maintain fresh to strong winds over the central Atlantic waters
through late Thu. High pressure over the western Atlantic will
shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of
Florida Thu. Southerly gale-force winds will prevail N of 29N E
of the front Thu. Refer to the Special Features section for more
details. This front will stall and dissipate from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by Sat. A weak reinforcing front will move off
northeast Florida by late Sat, and reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by late Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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