[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

As of 23/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from southern Mississippi
to the southwestern Gulf near 18N93.5W. Gale- force NW to N winds
continue S of 26N west of the front. These winds will prevail
until 1200 UTC Thu before diminishing below gale-force. For
additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE
winds over much of the Caribbean through Thu night, with gale-
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia through Thu
morning, then again Thu night. For additional information, please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic...

A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N
Atlantic on Thu. Strong SW winds ahead of the front are forecast
to increase to gale- force Thu morning through Thu evening N of
29N E of the front to 74W. The winds will decrease to below gale-
force by 0000 UTC Fri. For additional information, please read
the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco...

Meteo France is forecasting ongoing gale-force winds tonight near
the coast of Morocco in the marine zone AGADIR. The gale may
continue into the day on Thu. For additional information, please
visit the Meteo France website at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia in western
Africa near 05N09W and extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between 30W and
37W, and from 01N to 04N between 20W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1036 mb surface high is centered over the northeast Atlantic
with a ridge axis extending southwestward over Florida into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system is
over the Mississippi Valley dragging a cold front over the Gulf.
This front as of 2100 UTC extended from southern Mississippi to
the southwestern Gulf near 18N93.5W. Gale-force winds are
currently ongoing behind the front over a portion of the western
Gulf. Refer to the special features section for more details on
this gale. Strong to near gale-force winds cover the remainder of
the Gulf. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are organized in a
line within 150 nm E of the front N of 25N. A cluster of showers
and scattered thunderstorms extends from 24N to 26N between 84W
and 88W.

The cold front will continue to move across the Gulf waters
tonight, shifting E of the area Thu. Winds and seas will diminish
across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region.
Winds and seas will increase Sat into Sun over the southern Gulf
as another frontal boundary moves through the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong 1036 mb high pressure north of the area is inducing
widespread fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean
Sea. Earlier scatterometer data showed gale-force winds near the
coast of Colombia. Expect for these winds to prevail through Thu
night, with gale-force winds pulsing off of Colombia's coast.
Refer to the special features section for more details on this
gale. Expect seas well over 8 feet for much of the central
Caribbean through Thu night, highest over the south-central
Caribbean, where 10-15 ft seas are expected.

Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure
shifts east ahead of another cold front. This cold front is
expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The
front will stall and dissipate from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlc. To the east, a
cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N49W to 20N60W. It continues
as a stationary front from 20N60W to 19N69W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 25N between 36W and 45W. Surface ridging
extending from high pressure N of the Azores prevails across the
eastern Atlantic.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will weaken late this
week. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
maintain fresh to strong winds over the central Atlc waters
through late Thu. High pressure over the western Atlc will shift
eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of Florida
Thu. Southerly gale force winds will prevail N of 29N E of the
front Thu. Refer to the special features section for more details
on this gale. This front will stall and dissipate from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by Sat. A weak reinforcing front will move off
northeast Florida by late Sat, and reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by late Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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