[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N10W. ITCZ continues
from that point to 00N30W and into the coast of Brazil near
02S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
from 07N-00N between 10W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 04N-00N between 23W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 29N92W to S Texas
near 24N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers and
thunderstorms extending 90 to 180 nm east ahead of the front.
This convection extends S to SW over the NW Gulf of Mexico from
30N88W to 25N94W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from
24N96W to 22N97W. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air
behind the front filtering into the NW Gulf of Mexico and
limiting any additional shower activity.

A cold front from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico Sun, pushing SE of the
basin Mon. A surface trough will develop offshore of Veracruz
Mexico in the SW Gulf Mon, lingering over the western Gulf through
Wed before pushing W and inland as ridging builds from the E. The
ridging will then dominate through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean while
weak mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. The
weather is fairly quiet across the Caribbean Basin as dry mid-
level air covers the region. There are two areas where there is
enough low-level moisture to support scattered showers. One of
these areas is over the Leeward Islands and the other includes
eastern Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, E
Honduras, and E Nicaragua.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean
the next several days, with winds pulsing to near gale at night
NW of the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly moderate to
locally fresh trades will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N52W
to 22N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-25N between
48W-53W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 100 nm of the
front. A shearline extends from 22N62W to the northeast Bahamas
near 20N72W.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 32N22W
to 24N22W to 19N29W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
of the front. A 1015 mb low is near 26N29W with surface trough
extending SW from the low to 24N35W. No significant convection
is observed with the trough.

A shearline N of Hispaniola will dissipate tonight. A cold front
will move offshore of NE Florida Sun night, reaching from 31N68W
to the central Bahamas Mon night, from 28N65W to the Turks and
Caicos Tue night, from 23N65W to the N coast of the Dominican
Republic Wed night, then from 22N63W to near the Mona Passage Thu
night while weakening. Overall, marine conditions will remain
fairly tranquil through the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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