[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1240 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W.
Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from
01N-05N between 06W-10W. Scattered moderate convection is along
the ITCZ from 01N-04N between 26W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 12/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Louisiana near
30N93W to S Texas near 27N97W. A Warm front is over the Florida
Panhandle along 30N. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over
the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 22N and W of 88W.

The warm front will move N of the Florida Panhandle this evening.
The cold front will reach from the FL Panhandle to 26N86W to the
Mexico coast near 23N98W on Sunday morning, from the coast of Cuba
near 23N80W across the Yucatan Channel to 20N93W in the SW corner
of the Gulf on Monday morning, and the front will be SE of the
area on Tuesday morning. A surface trough will develop on Monday
morning along the coast of Mexico from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
northwestward to 25N97W, and the trough will continue on Tuesday
morning from the SW corner of the Gulf to 27N97W in SE coastal
Texas. Surface ridging, that will build in the wake of the front,
will support mainly moderate N to NE winds through the middle of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean while
weak mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. The
weather is fairly quiet across the Caribbean Basin as dry mid-
level air covers the region. There are two areas where there is
enough low-level moisture to support scattered showers. One of
these areas is over the Leeward Islands and the other includes
eastern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, E Honduras, and E
Nicaragua.

Moderate NE winds will pulse to fresh through the Windward
Passage during the next 24 hours. Moderate NE-to-E winds will
continue for today and tonight along the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic, increasing to fresh by Sunday morning. The
fresh winds in the S central Caribbean Sea will increase to strong
during the nighttime hours, as high pressure N of the area will
strengthen. Fresh-to-strong NE winds along the coast of Colombia
will increase to near gale from the late afternoon hours through
the overnight/early morning hours for most of the next week.
Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet. The tail end
of a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW waters from
Monday morning until Tuesday afternoon/night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends over the central Atlantic from 32N52W
to 24N62W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N between
50W-56W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the
front.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a large occluded 1014 mb low is in the
vicinity of 31N27W. A stationary extends from 32N21W to 27N22W to
20N30W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low and within
60 nm of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, strong high pressure over the NE CONUS will
strengthen during the weekend thus supporting moderate to fresh NE
winds east of the Bahamas. A cold front moving off NE Florida on
Sunday night will extend from 30N69W to the Straits of Florida Mon
night, and from 28N65W to north-central Cuba on Tue night. Fresh
to locally strong winds associated with the front are expected N
of 28N through Mon night. The front will dissipate N of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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