[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 00N34W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within
120 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-28W. Elsewhere within 300 nm of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong mid-level low is nearly vertically stacked over a 1008 mb
surface low over Oklahoma near 35N98W. A cold front extends from
the low through central Texas to the Big Bend of Texas. A
stationary front extends SE from the low to the north-central Gulf
Coast. A surface trough is over SE Texas, well ahead of the cold
front. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms
are over the western Gulf of Mexico west of a line from 30N91W to
27N92W to 24N94W to 21N97W. North of 26N, these showers will
progress eastward through the morning over the north-central Gulf.
South of 26N, the activity will stay over the SW Gulf.

The cold front that is currently over Texas will move into the NW
Gulf this afternoon. The front will reach from Crystal River
Florida to Tampico Mexico on Sunday evening, and from western Cuba
to the NE Yucatan Peninsula on Mon evening. A surface trough will
develop along the coast of Mexico and adjacent waters on Sunday
afternoon and will prevail through Wed afternoon. Rain showers are
expected near the surface trough. Surface ridging building in the
wake of the front will support mainly moderate N to NE winds
through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean while
weak mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. The
weather is fairly quiet across the Caribbean Basin as dry mid-
level air covers the region. There are two areas where there is
enough low-level moisture to support scattered showers. One of
these areas is over the Leeward Islands and the other includes
eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Elsewhere across
the northern and western Caribbean, isolated showers are possible.

NE fresh flow across the Windward Passage will prevail through
late this morning and then will pulse to fresh again tonight.
Winds in the S central Caribbean Sea will increase to strong
tonight as high pressure N of the area strengthens. Winds along
the coast of Colombia will reach near gale force at night through
Sun. Moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, the tail
of a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW waters Mon night
through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 32N52W to
28N59W to 23N63W. A surface trough is located about 60 nm east of
the front from 25N-30N. Scattered moderate convection is north of
24N between 51W-61W.

Farther east, a large occluded low is in the vicinity of 30N25W,
with a min surface pressure of 1014mb. A front associated with
this system extends from 32N18.5W to 28N20W to 22N26W to 19N34W.
Scattered moderate convection is near and west of the front north
of 25N. North of 29N, scattered moderate convection is between
18W-23W, with scattered showers from 17W-27W.

NW swell associated with a former front will move east of 65W
tonight. Strong high pressure over the NE United States will
strengthen during the weekend, thus supporting moderate to fresh
NE winds east of the Bahamas. A cold front moving off NE Florida
on Sunday night will extend from 30N69W to the Straits of Florida
Mon night, and from 28N65W to north-central Cuba on Tue night.
Fresh to locally strong winds associated with the front are
expected N of 28N through Mon night. The front will dissipate N of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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