[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 AM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 00N26W and into the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
from 00N-08N between 11W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is
north of the ITCZ from 00N-04N between 32W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Mobile Alabama to
27.5N90W to 23N95.5W to Tampico Mexico and inland over northern
Mexico. Radar imagery shows scattered showers ahead of the front
north of 28.5N between 85W-88W and over the western Florida
Panhandle. Isolated showers are elsewhere near and ahead of the
front. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air behind the
front filtering into the NW Gulf of Mexico and limiting any
additional shower activity.

The cold front from Mobile Alabama to Tampico Mexico will reach
from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico today, pushing
SE of the basin Mon. A surface trough will develop offshore of
Veracruz Mexico in the SW Gulf Mon, lingering over the western
Gulf through Wed before pushing W and inland as ridging builds in
from the E. The ridging will then dominate through the end of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 84W from 15N-21N, with possible isolated
showers between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are also noted over Haiti. Elsewhere
across the basin, the weather is fairly quiet as dry mid-level
air covers the region.

A weak trough in the NW Caribbean will shift W through today.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean the
next several days, with winds pulsing to near gale at night NW of
the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally
fresh trades will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front emerges off the Georgia coast near 31N81W and extends
NE to 32N79W and continues NE out of the forecast area. Isolated
showers are present in the area. A cold front enters the
forecast area near 32N61W and extends to 31N66W to 31N74W.
Isolated showers are possible in the area.

A stationary front extends from 32N52W to 29N54W to 26N59W,
dissipating to 22N62W. A shear line extends from 22N62W to near
the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough is east of the
stationary front from 23N54W to 28N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 23N-32N between 47W-56W.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near
27N28W. A surface trough runs through the low from 31N27W to the
low to 24N29W to 23N38W. A stationary front extends from 32N22W
to 25N22W to 19N29W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
27N-32N between 21W-28W. The surface low is part of a deep-layered
low that is no longer perfectly vertically stacked. The upper-
level low is near 31N28W.

A cold front will move offshore of NE Florida Sun night, reaching
from 31N68W to the central Bahamas Mon night, from 28N65W to the
Turks and Caicos Tue night, from 23N65W to the N coast of the
Dominican Republic Wed night, then from 22N63W to near the Mona
Passage Thu night while weakening. Overall, marine conditions over
the Atlantic will remain fairly tranquil through the next several
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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