[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 PM EST Thu Jan 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 02N20W, to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W
to 01N31W, 02N35W, and 03N43W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers from the line 06N10W to 04N30W to
06N52W southward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 23N80W, across NW Cuba, across parts
of the coastal waters of the northern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to 23N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A
stationary front continues from 23N96W to 22N98W. The stationary
front continues northwestward, into interior Mexico. Broken
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the south of
the line that runs from 24N80W to 23N90W to 26N97W.

A cold front extends from western Cuba to along the northern
Yucatan Peninsula and to near 23N96W, where it becomes stationary,
to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. The stationary front will
dissipate by this evening, as the cold front continues to pull
away from the area by late tonight. High pressure will build
across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front on Friday. The
next cold front will move across the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
This front will reach from near central Florida to 22N96W to
19N86W on Sunday night, and then move southeast of the area on
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough cuts across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola,
toward the NE part of Colombia and NW Venezuela. A trough/cyclonic
wind flow is in the same areas at 500 mb and at 700 mb, according
to the GFS model. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the
Caribbean Sea to the west of the line that runs from SW Haiti to
the coast of Panama along 78W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
also to the east of 74W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 10 January/1200 UTC...according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.40 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in St. Thomas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.01 in Curacao.

Fresh winds in the far south central Caribbean Sea will begin to
strengthen on Saturday. Long period N swell, with seas peaking to
around 7 feet, will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean waters
through Saturday night, and then subside through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N64W, just
to the east of Bermuda, beyond 23N80W and beyond NW Cuba.
A surface trough is to the east of the cold front, along 29N65W
24N70W, across Great Inagua Island in the SE Bahamas, to the
coastal waters of NW Jamaica near 18N79W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N60W to 28N64W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side
of the line that runs from the coastal waters of SE Cuba to
23N70W 27N64W beyond 32N60W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are
listed for the period that ended at 10 January/1200 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 1.09 in Bermuda.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through
32N26W to 28N38W and 25N36W. The front becomes dissipating
stationary from 25N36W to 23N51W. A surface trough continues from
23N51W to 22N60W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm
on either side of the line that passes through 32N24W 28N29W
26N35W 24N43W to 25N48W.

A cold front, extending from just east of Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and to along the northern coast of Cuba, will reach from
near 24N65W to northern Haiti on Friday, where it will become
stationary and become diffuse by late Saturday. The next cold
front will move across the northwest waters on Sunday night, and
reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to west central
Cuba on Monday night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will
precede this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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