[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Thu Jan 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N23W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along both boundaries mainly south of 03N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 24N80W to 23N88W to 25N96W, then
becomes stationary from that point to 22N98W to northeast Mexico.
Dry low-to-mid level air prevails across the basin hindering the
development of convection. Latest surface and scatterometer data
indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds are prevailing across
the gulf north of the front.

The stationary front over the western Gulf will dissipate
today as the cold front continues moving southeast away from the
basin. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the
front on Friday. The next cold front will enter the northwest
Gulf early this weekend. This front will reach from near central
Florida to 22N96W to 19N86W Sunday night then will shift southeast
of the area on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is centered over the central Caribbean.
Diffluent mid-to-upper level flow to the east of the trough is
supporting cloudiness across the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico and
the central Caribbean towards Colombia. Lower and middle level
GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows dry air to the west and east of
this swath of clouds previously described, which is supporting
fair weather in these other portions of the basin. Fresh to strong
winds over the far south central Caribbean will begin to expand
in coverage this weekend. The highest wind speeds are expected
near the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will enter the
northwest waters this afternoon, reach eastern Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Friday afternoon, and then stall before dissipating on
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N66W to south Florida near 24N80W
then continues across the Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from 30N65W to the central Bahamas to northern Cuba near
20N75W. Scattered showers are noted along and near the surface
trough mainly north of 24N. To the east, another cold front is in
the central Atlantic extending from 32N28W to 25N36W, then
becomes stationary from that point to 22N60W. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the area.

The westernmost cold front will reach from 24N65W to northern
Haiti Friday, where it will stall and become diffuse by late
Saturday. The next cold front will enter the northwest waters on
Sunday night, extending from near 31N68W to the Straits of
Florida by Monday night. The frontal system currently in the
central Atlantic will weaken through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net