[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1213 AM EST Thu Jan 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 04N08W and extends to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N24W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
south of 03N between 35W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 25N81W to 25N94W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 22N98W to northeast Mexico.
Very dry low and middle level air prevails across the basin
hindering the development of convection. Latest surface and
scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds are
prevailing across the gulf north of the front.

The cold front will continue moving across South Florida tonight
and will extend from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula to Brownsville, Texas. The tail of the cold front will
dissipate across the southwest gulf waters on Thursday night
while a strong high pressure continues to build across the basin.
The ridge will shift eastward this weekend, allowing the next
cold front to move off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. This new
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to south of Tampico,
Mexico on Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is centered over the central Caribbean.
Diffluent middle to upper level flow to the east of the trough is
supporting cloudiness across La Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and
Puerto Rico and the central Caribbean towards Colombia. Lower and
middle level GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows dry air to the
west and east of this swath of clouds previously described, which
is supporting fair weather in these other portions of the basin.
Fresh to strong winds over the far south central Caribbean will
begin to expand in coverage this weekend. The highest wind speeds
are expected near the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front
will enter the northwest waters on Thursday afternoon, reach
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Friday afternoon, and then
stall before dissipating on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to south Florida near 26N80W then
continues across the Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to northern Cuba near
21N74W. Scattered showers are noted along and near the surface
trough mainly north of 26N. To the east, another cold front is in
the central Atlantic extending from 32N30W to 25N40W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 22N61W. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the area.

The westernmost cold front will reach from Bermuda to central
Cuba on Thursday, and from near 24N65W to northern Haiti by Friday,
where it will stall and become diffuse by late Saturday. Strong
southwesterly winds will precede the front north of 28N and east
of 70W tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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