[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N20W to 02N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 12N E of 33W and from 04S to 04N W of 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 26N80W to 26N81W to the
central gulf near 25N90W to 25N95W to near Tampico, Mexico. Very
dry low and middle level air is across the gulf, which is
hindering the development of convection. Latest surface and
scatterometer data indicate northerly winds behind the front has
decreased to moderate to fresh. The cold front will move across
South Florida tonight and will extend from western Cuba to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula to Brownsville, Texas adjacent waters
where it will transition to a stationary front. The tail of the
cold front will dissipate across the SW gulf waters on Thu night
while strong high pressure continues to build across the basin.
The ridge will shift eastward on Sat evening, allowing the next
cold front to move off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. This new
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend SW to south of Tampico,
Mexico on Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is centered over the central Caribbean.
Diffluent middle to upper level flow to the east of the trough is
supporting cloudiness across La Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and
western Puerto Rico and S-SW across the central Caribbean towards
Colombia. Lower and middle level GOES-16 water vapor imagery show
very dry air to the west and east of this swath of clouds in the
central basin, which is supporting fair weather in these other
portions of the basin. However, shallow patches of moisture moves
across the NE Caribbean and over portions of the western basin,
thus supporting isolated showers and tstms in Puerto Rico,
eastern Cuba, Jamaica and within 90 nm off the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds over the far south
central Caribbean will begin to expand in coverage late Sat
through Mon night. The highest winds are expected near the coast
of Colombia at night. A cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu
afternoon, reach eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Fri
afternoon, and then stall before dissipating on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N71W to south Florida
near 26N80W into the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed
ahead of the front from 30N67W to the central Bahamas to northern
Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are N of
24N W of 65W. Another cold front is in the central Atlc
extending from 30N33W to 25N42W where it becomes stationary to
22N61W. High pressure dominates elsewhere N of 15N. The
westernmost cold front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba
Thu, and from near 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri, where it will
stall and become diffuse by late Sat. Strong SW winds of 25-30 kt
will precede the front north of 28N east of 70W tonight. High pres
will build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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