[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N21W to 02N33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed between the west coast of Africa and South America south
of a line from 11N15W to 08N30W to 01N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving quickly southward across the Gulf of
Mexico. As of 1500 UTC, the front extends from Cocoa Beach Florida
to Tampa Bay to 26N94W then inland into northern Mexico near
25N98W and northwestward over northern Mexico. Fresh to strong NE
winds are north of the front in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated
showers are possible near the front. A surface trough is analyzed
along 85W from 22N-26N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 23N-25N between 81W-86W, including
over the lower Florida Keys.

The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will continue moving
quickly southward today. It will reach from western Cuba to near
the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight, with its western portion
extending northwestward across the southwestern Gulf. This portion
of the front will become stationary and gradually dissipate by
late Thu night. High pres will build in the wake of the front
through Fri. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf on Sat. This front will reach from near central Florida to
22N96W to 19N86W Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough axis extends over the central Caribbean from
the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage to Panama. Typical isolated
showers exist area-wide, with isolated thunderstorms in the
central Caribbean near the upper-trough.

Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will
diminish today before strengthening again on Sat. The highest
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front enters the area near 31N75W and
extends to Cocoa Beach Florida to Tampa Bay and into the Gulf of
Mexico. The cold front is moving quickly southward. A surface
trough is analyzed from 30N73W to the central Bahamas near
24N76.5W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the
front to 26N, extending eastward to 70W. Farther east, another
cold front extends from 32N34W to 26N41W to 23N49W, and continues
as a dissipating stationary front to 22N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 30N between 27W-36W. In between the
two frontal systems, high pressure dominates the central
Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 33N55W.

The cold front that extends east of Florida will reach from
Bermuda to central Cuba Thu, and from near 24N65W to northern
Haiti Fri, where it will stall and become diffuse by late Sat.
This afternoon and tonight, strong SW winds of 25-30 kt will
precede the front north of 28N east of 70W. High pres will build
in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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