[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 PM EST Thu Jan 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 00N26W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
mainly 80 to 100 nm on either side of both boundaries. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted along the coast of Brazil from
00N to 04N between 42W to 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the western Atlantic to northwest
Caribbean into the Yucatan and across the Bay of Campeche near
20N90W to 21N97W. The cold front becomes stationary from that
point into northeast Mexico. Very dry air prevails across the
basin hindering the development of convection. Surface and
scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate northerly winds
prevailing across the gulf north of the front.

The western portion of the front will become stationary late
tonight, then dissipate by Fri evening. High pressure will build
over the Gulf in the wake of the front Fri. The next cold front
will move across the NW Gulf Sat. This front will reach from near
central Florida to 22N96W to 19N86W Sun night, then move southeast
of the area Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula
near 21N80W to 20N87W. An upper-level ridge is centered over the
western Pacific with its axis extended across the Gulf of Mexico.
Ridge will push the cold front SSE and bring drier conditions
across the basin. Further east, an upper level trough is observed
across the central Caribbean. A surface trough is near 19N75W to
western Jamaica near 18N79W and is supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, across the Mona Passage, Puerto
Rico and the Lesser Antilles. GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows
dry air mass entering the western Caribbean behind the front. The
scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds over Central
and eastern portion of the basin.

A cold front extending from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula
will weaken as it continues to push SSE over the NW Caribbean
through Fri morning. Fresh winds over the far south central
Caribbean will begin to strengthen Sat. Long period N swell, with
seas peaking to around 7 ft, will propagate through the Atlantic
waters through Sat night, then subside through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to central Bahamas near 23N75W,
then continues into central Cuba and across the Bay of Campeche.
A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N62W to the eastern
Bahamas to northeastern Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are
noted along and near the surface trough mainly north of 22N
between 57W to 68W. To the east, another cold front is in the
central Atlantic extending from 32N24W to 24N36W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 23N50W. A trough continues from
that point to 23N59W. High pressure dominates the remainder of
the area.

A cold front extending from 31N62W to the central Bahamas will
reach from near 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri, where it will become
stationary and become diffuse by late Sat. The next cold front
will move across the NW waters Sun night then reach from near
31N70W to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba Mon night.
Fresh to strong SW winds will precede this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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