[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
553 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning continues in effect for the Atlantic waters north
of 28N and behind a cold front to 58W. The front extends from
31N51W to 28N60W. These winds will diminish within the next 6
hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 05N08W and extends to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N11W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
between the west coast of Africa and 36W, mainly south of 08N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the basin, with a 1023 mb high
centered over northern Florida. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. No significant
precipitation is observed over the Gulf at this time.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through
mid-week. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering
the northern Gulf by Wednesday morning. The front will sink
slowly southward over the Gulf through Thursday night. Low
pressure may develop over the northwest Gulf along the next cold
front expected to arrive by the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough is over the northwest Caribbean, just
east of the Yucatan Penninsula and north of Honduras. A surface
trough is analyzed in this area, extending along 84W from 15N-22N.
Scattered showers are noted from 16N-19N between 80W-86W. Isolated
showers are noted across the remainder of the basin, moving quickly
with the trades. Fresh trades continue across most of the eastern
and central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of
Colombia.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through
mid week, diminishing slightly by the end of the week as the
high weakens. The highest winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a
cold front extends from 31N51W to 28N60W. A surface trough
extends from 31N47W to 24N67W with scattered showers. Gale-force
winds are associated to the cold front. Refer to the section above
for details.

In the northeast Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N28W
to 23N32W. A 1018 mb high is centered near 25N39W.

High pressure is maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the
region east of Florida and from the Bahamas northward. A cold
front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by tomorrow
night, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wednesday,
and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thursday. The
front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti
by the end of the work-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net