[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning is now in effect for the Atlantic waters north of
30N and behind a cold front that extends from 32N55W to 29N61W.
These winds will progress eastward between 60W-45W overnight,
remaining north of 30N. The gale is expected to move out of the
area before 08/1200 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 05N08W and extends to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N10W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
between the west coast of Africa and 38W, mainly south of 05N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the basin, with a 1023 mb high
centered near 23N84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin, with higher speeds
prevailing mainly west of 93W. No significant precipitation is
observed over the Gulf at this time. An upper level ridge axis
extends from SE Louisiana to the west-central Gulf near 24N95W to
southern Mexico near 18N98W and into the East Pacific.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through
mid-week. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering
the northern Gulf by Wednesday morning. The front will sink
slowly southward over the Gulf through Thursday night. Low
pressure may develop over the northwest Gulf along the next cold
front expected to arrive by the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, just E of
the Yucatan Penninsula and north of Honduras. Scattered showers
are noted over the west Caribbean south of 20N between from 16N-
20N between 81W-89W. Isolated showers are noted across the basin,
moving quickly with the trades. Fresh trades continue across most
of the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong trades near the
coast of Colombia.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through
mid week, diminishing slightly by the end of the week as the
high weakens. The highest winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a
cold front extends into the area from 32N55W to 29N61W. A surface
trough extends from 31N49W to 25N69W with scattered showers.
Gale winds are associated to the cold front. Refer to the section
above for details.

In the northeast Atlantic, a weakening stationary front extends
into the area from 31N28W to 27N29W. A 1020 mb high is centered
near 27N42W.

Weak high pressure is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
breezes across the region east of Florida and from the Bahamas
northward. A cold front will move into the waters off northeast
Florida by tomorrow night, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba
by late Wednesday, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late
Thursday. The front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to
northern Haiti by the end of the work-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net