[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N11W to 01N24W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection
currently exists within 240 n mi of the ITCZ axis between 20W and
33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough located over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico extending from 27N85W southward to 23N84W is producing
some shower activity in its vicinity. Otherwise, high pressure and
fair weather prevail across the remainder of the region. The
surface high is also causing light winds and low seas across the
majority of the Gulf.

High pressure will shift east over the forecast waters during the
next couple of more days. Fresh northerly winds will follow a
cold front entering the northern Gulf tonight, and this front will
move slowly southward over the Gulf through late this week.
Another cold front is expected to move over the northwestern
waters on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite images show a small area of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from 15N to 19N between 81W
and 83W. This activity is primarily associated with an upper-level
trough that extends across the area. Elsewhere, typical patches of
low clouds and isolated showers exist area-wide. The trade winds
are strongest, around 20-25 kt, in the typical spot near the coast
of Colombia due to the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over South America.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean Sea for another day or two, with the strongest winds
remaining near the coast of Colombia. The winds will likely
diminish some after that time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the western Atlantic and no significant
showers or thunderstorms exist over that area. Even though the
weather is fair, seas are elevated due to northwesterly swell.
The seas are highest, up to 18 ft., behind a strong cold front
over the central Atlantic that currently extends from 31N44W to
27N49W to 24N58W. Scattered showers are likley near the boundary,
and elswhere north of 28N between 43W and 52W. Scatterometer data
indicate that winds near the boundary have dropped below gale
force, but there is still a lagre area of 20-30 kt near that
feature. Weather conditions are fairly quiet over the eastern and
tropical Atlantic where weak high pressure domintaes. The only
exception is an area of showers and thunderstorms from 27N to 31N
between 25W and 29W, which is associated with an upper-level low
and associated surface trough.

A cold front is expected to move over the waters off northeastern
Florida tonight and Wednesday. This front is expected to move
slowly southeastward before stalling late this week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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